Former U.S. officials and experts say the strike, which Iran’s Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps said killed two senior members and five officers Monday in Damascus, could mean renewed attacks on American troops and bases in Iraq and Syria by Tehran-backed proxies.
Such attacks, which spiked after the start of the Israel-Hamas war in October, died down in early February in the wake of a massive U.S. retaliatory assault against the militia groups.
But though the U.S. has denied any involvement in the Damascus strike — which happened during the day on a diplomatic building near Iran’s Embassy — being Israel’s biggest ally could put Washington in the crosshairs of any retaliation from Iran.
Experts agreed, however, that any Iranian response would likely be carefully calibrated to avoid a costly all-out war involving the U.S. or its key regional ally.
By not responding, “Iran looks weak, both its own forces and to its allies,” said Jon Alterman, director of the Middle East program at the Center for Strategic and International Studies. “But it seems to me that Iran is also very cautious about getting into an escalatory spiral either with the United States or with Israel.”
He predicted a strike on an empty facility or an increase in missiles lobbed toward Israel, “something they can categorize as a response, but that they will calculate is unlikely to ratchet up tensions.”
The Pentagon indicated that officials were concerned Israel’s strike against Iran may increase the risk to U.S. troops in the region, as they’ve “made it very clear and [via] private channels to Iran that we were not responsible for the strike that happened in Damascus,” deputy press secretary Sabrina Singh told reporters Tuesday, a day after the strike.
Israel has not taken responsibility for the airstrike — the most significant such attack on Iranian interests since the start of Israel-Hamas war — but Singh said the U.S. assessed that Israel was responsible.
Israel also appeared to be preparing for blowback from the strike Thursday, when its military announced it was suspending leave for reservists.
Further ratcheting up concerns of a looming Iranian response, Tehran’s leaders have threatened retaliation.
Read the full report at TheHill.com.
