Test for both parties

The special election for Rep. John McHugh’s (R-N.Y.) seat will be seen as a clear sign of which party is on the up and which party is heading down.

Perhaps more accurately, it will be an indication of whether the GOP can get off the mat after being pummeled over the last two cycles.

Earlier this year, Democrats defied GOP predictions and retained the seat being vacated by former Rep. Kirsten Gillibrand’s (D-N.Y.) on her way to the Senate, even though Republicans enjoyed a 70,000-voter registration advantage.

{mosads}Republicans were demoralized by that loss. Some GOP spinners noted that it occurred during President Obama’s honeymoon, but if Republicans are going to regain power in Washington, they need to halt their long losing streak.

Democrats are looking to put McHugh’s seat in their column. Media outlets in New York report that Democrats have persuaded State Sen. Darrel Aubertine, a top recruit, to enter the race.

Meanwhile, many Republicans, including Assemblywoman Dierdre Scozzafava, Franklin County legislator Paul Maroun and Alexandria Bay businessman Matthew Doheny, are interested in succeeding McHugh.

Obama won McHugh’s district 52-47 last fall despite Republicans having a 47,000-voter registration advantage.

“It’s a district Republicans should win, but everyone said that about [Gillibrand’s] district,” said Lawrence Levy, director of Hofstra University’s National Center for Suburban Studies.

In recent weeks, Obama’s poll numbers have started to slip. And Republicans have taken notice. They have gotten bolder in their criticism of the president in the wake of dismal unemployment data, lambasting Obama’s stimulus and the climate change bill that passed the House last month.

Republicans also claim they are on the offense on healthcare as Democratic hopes to pass reform bills through both chambers before the August recess are fading fast.

Democrats are dealing with many legislative hurdles but note, correctly, that they always knew fixing the economy and changing the nation’s healthcare system were not going to be simple. The real test of leaders is when they are confronted with turmoil and deal with difficult problems.

For Republicans, policymaking is not on their agenda. Instead, their agenda is winning back control of Congress and the White House. The journey is a long one, and it will be longer if they lose McHugh’s seat later this year (the special election won’t be set until McHugh is confirmed by the Senate to become secretary of the Army).

The pressure to pass high-profile bills like healthcare reform is on the Democrats. The pressure to win elections, especially McHugh’s seat, is on the GOP.

If Democrats lose that election, they can point to control of the White House, their comfortable majorities in Congress and the fact that the seat has long been in Republican hands.

If Republicans lose, all they will able to say is something losing teams always say: “Wait until next year.”