Trump leading by 3 points in head-to-head match-up with Biden in Nevada

Former President Trump has a 3-point lead over President Biden in Nevada, according to a new poll published Tuesday by the AARP.

The poll found that 48 percent of Silver State voters side with Trump, while 45 percent back Biden. Among older voters, Trump holds a significant 12-point advantage over the president.

The result is an improvement for Biden, as polls found him trailing Trump by double digits in the state earlier this year.

With independent candidate Robert F. Kennedy Jr. included, Trump’s lead extends to 7 points. Kennedy has not yet qualified for the Nevada ballot, but has pledged to make the ballot in all 50 states as he leads a long-shot bid, which has threatened to shake the balance of the election.

Nevada is expected to be one of the most important states in the presidential election, with its three electoral votes up for grabs in one of only a handful of true swing states. Biden won the state by just 2.7 percent in 2020.

The state also features a close Senate race this year, in which Sen. Jacky Rosen (D) is vying for another term.

The AARP poll found Rosen with a 5-point lead over GOP candidate Sam Brown among all voters, though Brown led by 5 points among older voters. 

Split-ticket voters — those backing both Trump and Rosen, or Biden and Brown — could play a key factor, pollster Jeff Liszt predicted.

“When you look at the older voters, 43 percent are straight-ticket Republican and 35 percent are straight-ticket Democrat, but 23 percent are splitting their tickets,” Liszt told AARP. “[That’s] an indicator that there are more voters up for grabs right now than there may have been in recent elections.”

The AARP poll surveyed about 1,400 likely voters between June 12-18.