Where Harris stands against Trump in the battleground states that will decide the election

Democrats have new hope now that President Biden has stepped aside from his reelection campaign and Vice President Harris has the nomination within her grasp.

But the road to victory in November is still tough.

In the nationwide polling average maintained by The Hill and Decision Desk HQ (DDHQ), former President Trump leads Harris by 2 points.

The situation, however, is very fluid. These numbers include polls from both before and after Biden exited the race and endorsed Harris.

It is mostly unclear whether that seismic shift has changed the race.

Democratic strategist David Axelrod warned Tuesday that Trump is a “pretty substantial favorite” over Harris.

Another high-profile Democratic strategist, James Carville, said Wednesday that Harris is off to a strong start and people are feeling better, but “that excitement’s gotta be tempered with realism, and the realism is, she has a tough campaign to run.”

The outcome of the election will come down to six battleground states.

Here’s where things stand in them.

Arizona

Trump leads Harris by a sizable 7.2 points in The Hill/DDHQ average in Arizona. That’s a slightly wider lead than the former president enjoyed over Biden, though all the polls predated his exit.

Arizona has the lowest concentration of Black voters of any of the battleground states, which could contribute to Harris’s uphill climb there. Just 5.7 percent of the Arizona population is Black, according to U.S. Census Bureau figures.

Harris is of Jamaican and Indian parentage and would be the first Black female president if elected.

Arizona saw one of Biden’s narrowest victories in 2020, when he prevailed by less than half a percentage point.

Sen. Mark Kelly (D-Ariz.) is reported to be on Harris’s vice presidential shortlist, which could perhaps transform the race in the state. But Arizona looks a stretch for the vice president right now.

Georgia

The Hill/DDHQ average, which includes polls from before Biden decided to step aside, shows Trump leading Harris by 4.6 points in Georgia. He had led Biden by 3.7 points.

The only poll to appear since Biden’s shock announcement showed a closer race — Trump was up by just 1 point in the survey, from Landmark Communications.

Georgia has the largest Black population, proportionately, of any battleground; roughly 1-in-3 Georgians is Black.

It’s important to underline, though, that while Harris does somewhat better with Black voters than Biden in some surveys, the margins are pretty modest.

In a Quinnipiac University poll released Monday, for example, Harris commanded the support of 81 percent of Black voters. Biden was on 76 percent Black support.

Michigan

Trump leads Harris by 2.2 points in the Wolverine State, exactly the same margin as Biden. 

There have, however, been no major Michigan polls since Harris effectively claimed the nomination.

Israel’s assault on Gaza is an especially salient issue in Michigan, which has the highest concentration of Arab Americans of any state. In the Democratic primary back in February, an “uncommitted” option — widely seen as a protest vote against Biden’s strongly pro-Israel stance — drew 13 percent support.

There is a general consensus that Harris has been a bit more sympathetic than Biden to the broad Palestinian cause. She caused a stir within Democratic circles when she called for a temporary truce in March, before Biden had done so.

That being said, it’s far from clear that Harris’s policy on Israel and Gaza would be fundamentally different from Biden’s.

The vice president notably did not attend Israel Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu’s Wednesday speech to a joint session of Congress. Her aides noted she had a preexisting commitment in Indiana.

Nevada

In the DDHQ polling average, Trump leads Harris by more than 8 points here. But, again, no significant polling has emerged from the Silver State since she became the de facto nominee.

Almost 30 percent of Nevada’s population is Latino, which could — maybe — provide some hope for Harris.

In a Wednesday memo, Harris campaign Chair Jen O’Malley Dillon — who had served in the same role in the Biden campaign — argued: 

“Harris is more popular than Trump among undecided, independent, and third-party Latinos. Early polling from Nevada shows that the Vice President makes up ground with Latino voters and does ‘exceedingly well’ with Latino voters who are skeptical of both Biden and Trump.”

The latter assertion was based on one pollster’s finding that Harris “wins back some Latinos who had slipped away from Biden.”

That idea is about to be put to the test.

Pennsylvania

The biggest of all the swing states, with 19 electoral votes up for grabs. Trump holds an edge of about 4 points on Harris, just as he had on Biden.

Harris isn’t doing much better than Biden anywhere, but her team will hope that changes after the intense, and mostly favorable, attention she has recently received.

Team Harris will also hope the vice president’s strong support for reproductive rights could help with female voters in the suburbs around Philadelphia that have long been a key battleground within the state.

Harris could boost Black turnout in Philadelphia and Pittsburgh too.

Importantly, Pennsylvania also has a higher proportion of college graduates than any of the other five battlegrounds. There is some evidence that Harris does slightly better than Biden with those voters.

Wisconsin

Harris’s first full-blown campaign event after Biden pulled out was in the Milwaukee area. The city will be crucial to her hopes of holding onto a state that Biden won by just six-tenths of a percentage point in 2020.

Opinion polls have shown Wisconsin to be one of the tightest battlegrounds.

The Hill/DDHQ average has Trump leading Harris by less than 2 points in the state, essentially the same as his margin over Biden.

The optimistic view for Harris is one in which the age issue works in her favor with young voters in Wisconsin’s college towns, while her barrier-breaking potential excites liberal-leaning and Black voters.

The danger for her, as in Pennsylvania and Michigan, is that conservative-inclined independents balk at backing her.

This story was first posted at 6 a.m. ET