5 early takeaways from Arizona’s primaries

Arizona’s primaries Tuesday night saw numerous candidates who have questioned the results of past elections gain ground, the latest sign of former President Trump’s deepening imprint on the GOP in the Grand Canyon State.

In the most significant races of the night, Rep. Ruben Gallego (D-Ariz.) and Republican Kari Lake were officially chosen as their parties’ respective Senate nominees.

But voters also weighed in on several other contested primaries, including those for seats being vacated by Gallego and Rep. Debbie Lesko (R). The primary night also offered some clues of what voters might expect in November. 

Here are five early takeaways from Arizona’s primaries: 

A winning night for election deniers

Tuesday night was undoubtedly a good night for election deniers.

Lake, who has refused to concede her 2022 election loss, won her GOP primary. Abe Hamadeh, a former attorney general candidate running in the GOP primary for the 8th Congressional District, has called the 2020 election “rigged” and claimed Trump won the state that year. He was leading his GOP rival Blake Masters, another Trump ally, 30 percent to 23 percent at time of publication.

Former state Rep. Mark Finchem, a former secretary of state candidate who has also espoused baseless claims about the 2020 election, was leading his next GOP rival 45 percent to 37 percent, with 60 percent of estimated vote reported as of Wednesday morning. 

And in one of the biggest surprises of the night, Maricopa County Recorder Stephen Richer, a top election official who pushed back against false fraud claims about the election, was trailing one of his hard-line GOP primary challengers.

All in all, the night underscored the extent to which election denialism has taken hold in the Arizona GOP’s base.

A marquee Senate race is set

Gallego and Lake had been in general election mode long before the primaries took place, as both candidates were heavily favored to win.

On Tuesday night, their match-up became official. 

Lake had a primary rival in Pinal County Sheriff Mark Lamb, though Decision Desk HQ quickly called the race for her Tuesday.

In a nod to the much anticipated head-to-head, the Senate Democrats’ campaign arm quickly released a new digital ad targeting Lake. Sen. Gary Peters (D-Mich.), the chair of the Senate Democrats’ campaign arm, called the former local news anchor a “power-hungry liar,” while lauding Gallego as a “proven fighter for his state’s families and priorities.”

Meanwhile, Sen. Steve Daines (R-Mont.), the chair of the Senate GOP campaign arm, called Gallego “one of the most radical Democrats in the country” as he congratulated Lake for her victory in her primary.

An aggregate of Arizona surveys compiled by Decision Desk HQ shows Gallego leading Lake 47 percent to 43 percent. The nonpartisan election handicapper Cook Political Report rates the seat “lean Democrat.”

Potential warning signs for Lake

Though Lake quickly captured the Republican nomination, Lamb still received a notable chunk of the GOP primary vote. 

Lake received 53 percent of the vote to Lamb’s 41 percent with 63 percent of the estimated vote reported as of early Wednesday morning, raising questions over whether the sheriff’s supporters will ultimately migrate to her in November.

Lake has long been a divisive figure within the GOP. She has sought to court skeptics and the John McCain faction of the Republican Party after isolating them last cycle when she ran for Arizona governor.

But the former local news anchor has in many ways run as the same conservative firebrand that she ran as in 2022, and some of those previously skeptical of her remain unconvinced about her candidacy.

Whether that will hurt her in November remains to be seen, but the divided vote share Tuesday suggests she might have work to do in appealing to some Republicans.

Masters poised for defeat — again

Masters first gained national attention as a candidate backed by conservative entrepreneur Peter Thiel in Arizona’s 2022 Senate race. He ended up losing to Democrat Mark Kelly, who is now being considered for Kamala Harris’s running mate.

Masters looked poised to suffer yet another defeat Tuesday night, this time in the GOP primary in Arizona’s 8th Congressional District against Hamadeh. 

The former Senate candidate received a last-minute endorsement from Trump — who also threw his backing behind Masters’s opponent, Hamadeh, saying both men were equally good candidates.

Other Republicans who ran in the GOP contest to replace Lesko included Arizona House Speaker Ben Toma and former Rep. Trent Franks (R-Ariz.).

Arizona is slow at counting ballots

Tuesday night also underscored a key point that will be relevant for November: Arizona takes a long time to count ballots.

As of early Wednesday morning, many races had yet to be called.

Some of this appears to be due to a newly enacted law that changes how mail-in ballots are verified. The law had sparked confusion among some officials as to how they should track mail ballots, according to Votebeat.

The slow duration of Tuesday’s count offers clues as to what to expect in November. If control of the White House or the Senate ends up hinging on Arizona, it could potentially take days to know the results of those elections.