Israel has not escalated; it has merely retaliated

The White House has strongly implied that Israeli retaliatory strikes on Iran and its proxies are escalating the conflict in the Middle East. But that’s not what they are — they are reactions to escalations.

In other words, the Biden-Harris Administration’s global escalation paralysis is being projected unfairly upon Israel’s offensive actions to defend themselves.

Israel is the victim, not the perpetrator. The invasion of Gaza was the result of the Oct. 7 Hamas terrorist attack on Israel. The airstrike on Iran was a response to the April 13 missile-drone attack on Israel. The airstrike on the port of Hodeidah, Yemen was in response to a Houthi drone strike in Tel Aviv on July 19.

None of these was escalatory. The Israeli actions were and are, militarily speaking, defensive in nature and execution. 

The Israeli airstrikes against Hamas, which eliminated Ismail Haniyeh and Mohammed Deif, and the strikes Hezbollah senior commanders Fuad Shukr and Ali Nazih Abed Ali, were responses to the missile attack that killed 12 Druze children on a soccer field in the Golan Heights. The same goes for Israeli strikes on Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps (IRGC) leadership in Tehran, Gaza, Southern Lebanon, and Beirut — including Milad Bidi.

Israel has repeatedly demonstrated it has the intelligence and operational reach to hold Iran and its proxies accountable, despite ongoing reluctance in the Biden White House.

Despite Washington’s interference, Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu has vowed to keep fighting, saying Israel is “ready for any scenario” and has delivered “crushing blows” to its enemies throughout the Middle East.

Israel demonstrated its considerable operational reach on July 20, when F-15 and F-35 fighter jets struck multiple targets at the Red Sea port of Hodeidah, Yemen — over 1,000 miles away. The strikes came in response to a Houthi drone attack in Tel Aviv that struck a civilian apartment building near the U.S. Embassy branch office, killing one person and wounding eight others the day prior.

According to Israeli military spokesman Rear Adm. Daniel Hagari, the sites struck in Yemen were used for military purposes. The port is a major point of entry for Iranian weapons and ammunition for the Houthi rebels. 

In April, Israel penetrated Iranian air defenses to strike targets deep in Iran’s interior, near the cities of Tabriz and Isfahan, and the Natanz nuclear complex. In July, Israel was able to kill Ismail Haniyeh in Tehran. The precise means of delivery remains unknown. One theory is that the Mossad enlisted Iranian agents from the Ansar al-Mahdi security unit to plant explosives in the Tehran guesthouse where Haniyeh was staying.

Haniyeh’s demise was originally planned for May, when he attended Iranian President Ebrahim Raisi’s funeral. But the bombing was called off due to the large number of people in the building at the time and a seemingly high possibility of failure; however, the agents allegedly emplaced the explosives in the event that he or any other senior leader returned.

Regardless, Iran has an insider threat problem. Esmail Qaani, commander of the Quds Force, stated “The breach has humiliated everyone,” and has summoned people to be fired, arrested and likely executed.

By killing Haniyeh, Israel has exposed vulnerabilities in Iran’s defenses and demonstrated it can exploit them seemingly at will. To date, Jerusalem has been remarkably constrained, choosing to deliver messages of capability designed to deter further attacks instead of direct strikes that could risk sparking a wider regional conflict.

Tehran is vowing immediate revenge. Iranian Supreme Leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei is threatening to strike Israel directly for a second time this year. He issued the order for Iran to hit Israel directly after an emergency meeting of Iran’s Supreme National Security Council Wednesday morning.

Once again, Washington is playing catch-up. Caught flat-footed after the return of the USS Eisenhower to its home port in Virginia, the Pentagon has had to scramble air and naval assets back into the region. 

While visiting the Philippines last week, U.S. Defense Secretary, Lloyd Austin told reporters, “If Israel is attacked, we certainly will help defend Israel.” The U.S. will not likely support any offensive actions, but it will have Israel’s back, should Iran retaliate with more missiles and drones. Netanyahu will take it. 

Meanwhile, Israel is continuing its top-down approach to neutralize Iranian proxies. The defeat of Hamas in Gaza remains its main effort, yet the larger Hezbollah threat looms in Lebanon to the north. So do the Houthi rebels in Yemen to the south. The connective tissue is Iran’s IRGC, which coordinates and supports these Iranian proxies. 

Systematically removing key leaders within the Iranian proxy hierarchy weakens command and control and adversely affects morale within the ranks. It may be easier to break it than to destroy it — and at a lesser cost in Israeli lives.

Without proxies to shield Tehran, Iran is vulnerable. Israel struck yet again in the West Bank on Saturday, killing Haitham Balidi, a Qassam Brigade commander. Eight other terrorists from several other terrorist groups were killed in the same series of strikes that occurred near Nablus and Tulkarem.

Time is not on Iran’s side. Israel is systematically deconstructing the IRGC’s leadership and soon will be turning its attention to Iran. These are dangerous times for an increasingly desperate Iran, frantically in pursuit of a nuclear weapon to ensure its survival. Israel will do what it takes to prevent that.

A massive retaliatory strike may very well be in the cards. But can Iran deliver a debilitating blow to Israel? We may be starting to get that answer. Late Saturday night, Hezbollah began launching upwards of 60 rockets into northern Israel. 

Again, the Biden-Harris Administration’s escalation paralysis is leading our nation’s enemies to escalate. We have witnessed Russia repeatedly do this in Ukraine — and now Iran and its proxies are doing so in the Middle East. 

There is no limit to Israel’s escalation paradigm. It is a simple matter of survival. They will keep climbing the escalation ladder with Iran, while the Biden-Harris Administration observes and, weighed down by November electoral considerations, objects.

Col. (Ret.) Jonathan Sweet served 30 years as a military intelligence officer and led the U.S. European Command Intelligence Engagement Division from 2012 to 2014. Mark Toth writes on national security and foreign policy.