Harris support grows in key swing states

Vice President Harris is rising across the board in the key swing states she will need to win to capture the presidency in November.

After President Biden struggled against former President Trump in the seven key election battlegrounds, Harris has turned the tide.

Several recent polls have shown her leading in the battlegrounds, or at least closing the gap with Trump. Harris led by 1 point overall in a poll of all seven battlegrounds released Wednesday by the Cook Political Report Swing State Project.

All of this also has deep implications for the fight to win the majorities of the Senate, and particularly the House, where every seat is up for grabs.

The past three weeks are a reminder of how much things can change quickly in politics. Things may change again, too, before November.

But here’s how things stand in the nation’s seven big swing states in the presidential contest right now.

Arizona 

Harris had narrowed the gap with Trump in the Grand Canyon State since she became the likely Democratic nominee, according to a handful of polls that have been released.

The vice president was down by 7 points in The Hill/Decision Desk HQ polling average of Arizona when she entered the race, but now she is behind by just 0.7 points. 

The swing state poll gave Trump a 1-point lead over Biden in Arizona in May, but Harris has a 2-point edge head-to-head in the latest version.

Her performance in that poll improves when other candidates, like independent Robert F. Kennedy Jr., are included. In that scenario, Harris leads Trump by 4 points. This is in line with other polls that have shown her performing better when other candidates are included. 

All these numbers are within the margin of error, but other polls have also shown the race as more competitive than it appeared to be when Biden was the Democratic candidate.

Harris led by almost 3 points in a HighGround Public Affairs survey released last week, and she trailed by 1 point in a poll from the Trafalgar Group, a right-leaning pollster. 

Georgia 

Like Arizona, Georgia has shifted toward Harris, though she still has a deficit with Trump, who leads her in the average from The Hill/DDHQ by about 2 points. 

Harris and Trump were tied in a head-to-head match-up in the Cook poll at 48 percent support, a shift from when Trump led Biden by 3 points. An AARP poll published Thursday found the same result, with Trump taking a 2-point lead when Kennedy was factored in. 

That poll also found Harris slightly ahead with independents and even with Trump in favorability rating, a significant vulnerability that consistently plagued Biden. 

Of the six swing states most crucial to the election’s result, not counting North Carolina, Trump had his largest lead in the Peach State of anywhere a few weeks ago. But now, it’s back in play. 

Michigan 

As a key part of the Midwestern “blue wall” of states that decided the past two elections, Michigan had been seen as a critical and more realistic path for Biden to win, even as some other states became more difficult. 

But he still trailed there by a few points on average, while Harris has seized the lead in recent days. She is up in The Hill/DDHQ polling average by 2 points, having moved ahead of Trump soon after she became a candidate. 

In the Cook poll, Harris’s performance in Michigan significantly improved compared to the project’s survey with Biden in May. The incumbent was losing by 2 points then, but Harris is up 3 points now. 

In another sign of the vice president’s momentum in Michigan, she led in a New York Times/Siena College poll by 4 points, still within the margin of error but improving from Biden’s best showings in the state. 

Some Democrats have had concerns about Michigan given the state’s sizeable Arab American population and intraparty friction over the Israel-Hamas war. But polling has also found Harris improving among key demographics in a state where Biden was underperforming, including young voters and independents. 

Nevada 

Although Nevada has not voted for a Republican presidential candidate since 2004, it has consistently been considered a battleground because it has produced a string of close elections. That seems likely to be the case again this year with Harris in the race. 

Only a few polls of the state have been conducted since Harris became the likely Democratic nominee, but those that have been released depict a much tighter race than the one between Biden and Trump appeared to be.

Nevada was the only state that Cook polled in which Trump was leading. In a head-to-head match-up with Harris, Trump led by 3 points.

His lead grew to 5 points when other candidates were included.

Still, that is a noteworthy improvement for Harris from Biden’s numbers in May, when he was behind by 9 points when facing only Trump and 8 points with other candidates included. 

A few other polls have shown an even smaller gap between Trump and Harris. She was down 1 point in a Public Opinion Strategies poll released at the start of this month and led by 2 in a Morning Consult/Bloomberg poll at the end of last month. 

Cook reclassified the state from “lean Republican” to “toss up” last week because of the numbers that have come out. 

Harris over the weekend voiced support for a Trump idea of eliminating taxes on tips. That was widely seen as a play for the hearts of service workers in Las Vegas in particular.

North Carolina 

North Carolina has been a bit of a white whale for Democrats, whose most recent win in the state was in the 2008 presidential election. It looked out of reach in the polling of Trump and Biden, but it is clearly back on the map with Harris as the candidate.

Cook’s poll had Harris roaring back from Biden’s 7-point deficit in May to a 1-point lead against Trump. With third-party candidates, the swing was from Trump by 8 points to Harris by 2 points. 

As Democrats look to the state as their top opportunity to expand the map beyond Biden’s winning coalition in 2020, Harris is set to deliver her first major policy speech at a rally in North Carolina on Friday.

Pennsylvania 

The Keystone State is the most valuable of all the battlegrounds with 19 electoral votes, and analysts have pointed to the state as among the most likely to vote the same way as the country as a whole. 

Biden had kept closely behind Trump throughout much of the campaign, but the margin began to expand after the debate. Harris has steadily risen over the past few weeks and held a narrow lead in The Hill/DDHQ average since late last week, ahead by 0.6 points. 

This increase was a result of numerous polls being released showing her leading by a few points. She is up by 1 point in a head-to-head race with Trump in the Cook poll, but that lead grows to 5 points with third party candidates included. 

The Times/Siena poll had her up 4 points, the same as Michigan. And a Quinnipiac University poll gave her a 3-point lead both with and without Kennedy in the mix. It showed her leading among demographics like women and white, college-educated voters. 

Other polls still show Trump ahead, making the state one of the tightest in the country right now. 

Wisconsin 

Wisconsin is among the most polarized states in the country, giving the state its toss-up status. 

The state was one of the brighter spots for Biden before he dropped out of the race. He was tied or slightly leading Trump in the final two months of his campaign.

Since Harris entered the race, the lead for Democrats has grown.

She is ahead of Trump by 3.5 points in The Hill/DDHQ average, her largest average lead of any swing state. 

In the Cook poll, she’s up 3 points when facing only Trump and 5 points with third parties. Biden was tied in both cases in May. 

She led by 4 point in the Times/Siena poll and by 2 points in the Morning Consult/Bloomberg poll. Trump led by 1 point in a Marquette Law School poll taken toward the end of July.