Study rejects link between bail reform, increases in crime

A new study found no significant relationship between bail reform and crime rates, pushing back on the notion that bail reform led to the midpandemic spike in violent crime, the Brennan Center for Justice said Thursday.

The report, published Thursday, analyzed monthly crime data from 2015 through 2022 in 22 cities that had put in place some type of bail reform and 11 cities that did not. Researchers looked at all major offenses across jurisdictions and then at specific types of crime.

“Ultimately this report finds no statistically significant relationship between bail reform and crime rates. In other words, there is no reason to believe that bail reform has led to increased crime,” the report said. “This holds true even when focusing on major policy changes that have drawn public scrutiny, like those in New York and New Jersey.”

Even after testing different types of reform, researchers still found no evidence to support a connection between bail reform and the uptick in crime since the pandemic.

Bail reform generally refers to efforts to move away from the practice of requiring cash bail as a stipulation for pretrial release as a way to address inequities.

Various cities saw an increase in violent crime as the COVID-19 pandemic unfolded in 2020 and 2021, and some police leaders, pundits and politicians blamed bail reform. Some cities began rolling back bail reform, claiming doing so would bolster public safety.

In 2020, homicides surged 29 percent for the biggest one-year jump in FBI records. While some pointed the finger at bail reform, some experts suggested the massive disruption of the pandemic, gun violence, worries about the economy and intense stress were to blame.

Violent crime has been decreasing since 2022. FBI statistics released in June showed violent crime dropped considerably in the first few months of this year.

The findings suggested “that policymakers’ recent focus on weakening bail reforms as a response to crime has been misguided” and “a distraction” from other public safety measures, researchers wrote.

Policymakers should instead focus on addressing specific social and policy issues that became worse from the pandemic, researchers said, using the example of expanded mental health and substance abuse treatment programs.