GOP, Democrats prepare for 10-week sprint in dead-even Trump-Harris race

Harris’s party has sought to cast themselves as underdogs, even as her entry into the campaign has supercharged Democrats down in the dumps over President Biden’s chances of reelection.

As Democrats guard against overconfidence, the Trump campaign and Republicans feel they still have multiple paths to victory and advantages on the issues that matter the most to many voters.

Trump, who has faced calls from Republicans to change his campaign strategy given his new opponent, recently dismissed the idea that Harris is gaining ground. He also last week ridiculed those who say he should avoid personal attacks on his opponents, who he noted are happy to go on the attack against him.

“No, she’s not having success. I’m having success,” Trump told Fox News anchor Martha MacCallum on Thursday.

“I’m doing great with the Hispanic voters. I’m doing great with Black men. I’m doing great with women, because women want safety,” Trump said. “No, it’s only in your eyes that they have [momentum], Martha. We’re doing very well in the polls.”

The polls do show a very tight race that is likely to come down to seven familiar states: Michigan, Wisconsin, Pennsylvania, Arizona, Nevada, Georgia and North Carolina.

At the same time, there is no question polling has shifted in Harris’s favor.

A Decision Desk HQ/The Hill average of polls shows Harris leading Trump in Michigan by 2 points, North Carolina by 1 point, Pennsylvania by 1 point and Wisconsin by 3 points.

Trump leads Harris by 3 points in Georgia and 1 point in Nevada, while the two candidates are deadlocked in Arizona, according to polling averages.

Both sides are aware of the numbers, and do not want their supporters to take anything for granted.

“I think we are in an era of close elections, and the default is, everything is close,” Democratic strategist Joel Payne said. “But that also means that small shifts are significant. I think it’s probably a good chance that Harris moved the race a couple of points in her direction with the convention this week.”

Harris’s late emergence as the Democratic nominee left the two campaigns with roughly 100 days to motivate their base voters and appeal to those still undecided. Robert F. Kennedy Jr.’s announcement Friday that he was ending his independent bid and endorsing Trump was a reminder of how quickly things could still shift in the final two months of the race.

“[Trump] understands media enough to know he’s lost control of the narrative and I fully expect [him] to try and get that back,” said Democratic strategist Jamal Simmons, who served as Harris’s communications director until last year. “I do believe that he will search for a new moment to change the trajectory of the race.” 

“So there will be dramatic moments,” Simmons predicted. 

Democrats have had a remarkable turnaround in the past month, going from resignation over the fate of the race to a state of sheer jubilation with Harris atop the ticket. Last week’s convention was a joyous gathering for the party, which found itself in the unexpected position of having to guard against overconfidence.

“This is a brutal, tough business. I want you to be happy. One of the reasons that President-to-be Harris is doing so well is that we’re all so happy,” former President Clinton told the convention crowd Wednesday night. “But you should never underestimate your adversary.”

Harris herself continued to describe the party as the underdogs in the presidential contest. Her running mate, Minnesota Gov. Tim Walz (D), told supporters during his acceptance speech, “there’ll be time to sleep when you’re dead.”

Republicans and the Trump campaign have been adamant the odds remain in their favor. Polls have shown voters trust Trump more than Harris on issues such as immigration and the economy, both of which are likely to be key considerations when voters cast their ballots.

Senior Trump campaign advisers have also maintained the former president has multiple paths to 270 electoral votes. Harris’s campaign likely needs to sweep the “blue wall” states of Michigan, Wisconsin and Pennsylvania, which Trump won in 2016 and lost in 2020 by a combined total of fewer than 200,000 votes.

“I just want to urge everybody out there — we cannot take this for granted,” Georgia Gov. Brian Kemp (R) said Thursday on Fox News. “We have got to get the vote out. We got to stay focused. We got to stay focused on the future.”

Trump allies have also argued Harris is experiencing an extended honeymoon phase with voters that has led to inflated poll numbers that overstate what her support will be in November after she faces weeks of bruising attacks and questions about her policy views.

Harris and Trump will square off in a debate Sept. 10, which is likely to be the next major inflection point in the race.

“Act I of the Harris-Walz campaign ended last night, and it played to rave reviews,” said Jim Kessler, co-founder of the center-left think tank Third Way. “Act II starts now, and this is where the two sides mix it up, highlighted by multiple debates. The race is dead even.” 

Amie Parnes contributed.