Poll: Kelly opens up double-digit lead against McSally in Arizona Senate race

Democratic Senate candidate Mark Kelly (D) has a 12-point lead over Sen. Martha McSally (R-Ariz.) in the Arizona Senate race, according to a Univision poll released Friday. 

Kelly, a former astronaut, is challenging McSally, who lost the general election in 2018 to Sen. Kyrsten Sinema (D). McSally was later appointed to the Senate to succeed interim Sen. Jon Kyl (R), who filled Sen. John McCain‘s (R) seat following his death in 2018.

In the Univision poll, Kelly earned 48 percent support among registered voters, while McSally earned 36 percent support. Kelly polled significantly better than his opponent among Latino and black voters. 

However, the Univision poll isn’t the first sign of an uphill battle for McSally. A poll released earlier this week by OH Predictive Insights, a Phoenix-based polling firm, showed Kelly with 49 percent support among Arizona voters, compared with 42 percent for McSally.

Arizona, a key state that went to President Trump in 2016, also appears to be leaning Democratic in the lead up to the 2020 presidential election. 

When given the choice between former Vice President Joe Biden and Trump, 50 percent of respondents chose Biden and 42 percent chose Trump. In a head-to-head against Sen. Bernie Sanders (I-Vt.), the other Democratic presidential front-runner, 48 percent chose the Vermont senator over the president.

Both Biden and Sanders received support from more than 60 percent of Latinos and more than 70 percent of black voters.

When given the option to chose between Trump and whomever wins the Democratic nomination, 51 percent of voters said they would support the Democratic nominee and 41 percent supported Trump.

The poll surveyed 1,036 likely voters in Arizona and has a 3 percent margin of error.