Trump’s hurdles: A scary virus, shaky economy and Joe Biden

In times of crisis it’s not a bad idea to state the obvious, so here goes: Donald Trump can still win re-election but don’t bet the rent money on it. Everything that could go wrong — at least at the moment — is going wrong. 

First, he was counting on a strong economy to take him to the finish line. He was planning to take credit for low unemployment and high consumer confidence. He didn’t figure on running for reelection with a recession hanging over his presidency.

Instead of a booming economy, America is shutting down. Restaurants, movie theaters, airlines, hotels, March Madness, professional sports and a bunch of other businesses, big and small, have been hit hard. And when people feel uneasy about their financial well-being, when their 401(k) suddenly looks like a 201(k), they won’t blame Joe Biden.

Neither did the president think he’d be running during a worldwide pandemic that has everyone on edge. 

No, he’s not responsible for the virus that came to life in China. But that doesn’t mean voters won’t hold him responsible for the damage it does. If he’s not seen as a truthful, competent leader, his chances of serving a second term will be greatly imperiled.

And here’s where the Donald Trump we’ve seen for the past three years comes into play: He gets things wrong. A lot. And especially during a crisis such as this, facts matter. Getting it right matters. And he’s gotten more than a few things wrong. 

Here’s how Peter Wehner, a self-described lifelong Republican who has served in the last three GOP administrations (and who says he’ll never vote for this president) put it in a March 13 piece for Atlantic magazine: “The president’s misinformation and mendacity about the coronavirus are head-snapping. He claimed it was contained in America when it was actually spreading. He claimed we had ‘shut it down’ when we had not. He claimed testing was available when it wasn’t. He claimed coronavirus will one day disappear ‘like a miracle’; it won’t.” 

None of this may matter to Trump’s most passionate fans, the ones who will vote for him no matter what. But take note, Mr. President: It’s not only your loyalists who vote. So do independents — and what doesn’t matter to your adoring base may very well matter to them.

And then there’s his likely opponent. The president, by all accounts, was hoping to run against Sen. Bernie Sanders (I-Vt.), who he would call a socialist and probably a communist and whose policies he would portray as far out of the mainstream of American politics. But it doesn’t look like that’s going to happen.

With Sanders’s candidacy on life support, the president almost certainly will run against Joe Biden, who will portray himself as a unifier running against a divider.

In a recent victory speech after a strong Tuesday of primary sweeps, the former vice president told his supporters: “We are a step closer to restoring decency, dignity and honor to the White House. We need presidential leadership that’s honest, trusted, truthful and steady.”

That’s the kind of message that may very well resonate with swing voters in crucial battleground states, the ones who are exhausted with the president’s nonstop battles with anyone and everyone who’s ever said a bad word about him.

So the president will be running against a trio of obstacles — a scary virus, a shaky economy and an opponent who will portray himself as a moderate, mainstream and stable alternative to a polarizing president presiding over tumultuous times.

Three strikes and you’re out in baseball. But politics is a different game altogether. Come November, coronavirus may be in our rearview mirror. The economy may have recovered. The stock market may be heading to new highs. 

You never know. Donald Trump just may get lucky.

Bernard Goldberg, an Emmy and an Alfred I. duPont-Columbia University award-winning writer and journalist, is a correspondent with HBO’s “Real Sports with Bryant Gumbel.” He previously worked as a reporter for CBS News and an analyst for Fox News. He is the author of five books and publishes exclusive weekly columns, audio commentaries and Q&As on his Patreon page. Follow him on Twitter @BernardGoldberg.