Democrats vs. Republicans in the race for ‘streamers’

All eyes are on the numbers: How many people watched the Democratic National Convention’s virtual kickoff last night? At a time when most people are staying at home streaming videos, drawing an audience should be easy. But politics is not college football. The bigger question when it comes to a party convention is: Does it matter who watches?

Four years ago, the first night of the Democratic convention drew upwards of 25 million viewers on broadcast and cable news stations, with the final night of the event – when presidential nominee Hillary Clinton delivered her acceptance speech – topping 33 million TV viewers. The YouTube livestream that evening peaked at roughly 250,000 simultaneous viewers.

While we await this year’s Nielsen tallies, Democrats want to rack up interest, viewership and votes. Back in February, their presidential debate in Las Vegas, which included the last-minute addition of Michael Bloomberg, was a ratings record-breaker. The forum on NBC and MSNBC drew nearly 20 million viewers, beating the Golden Globes and Grammys, according to Nielsen.

On the one hand, who watched last night matters from the standpoint of reactions, especially with a tweeter-in-chief who responds immediately and has already attacked former First Lady Michelle Obama, saying she was “in over her head.”

In the age of social media, opinions draw followers. Republican political advisers most certainly watched, and will be looking at the audience numbers. “Tuning in” during a pandemic can equate to “turning out” in an election at a time when getting together in-person can be downright dangerous, according to guidance from the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention.

On the other hand, conventions do not create the bounce effect they used to. Truth be told, conventions have dwindling political value. Prior to the 2000 election, convention bumps averaged more than six points, but that fell to just over two points from 2000 to 2012.  

The real value of audience size is that, in the case of President Trump, it is a talking point and a psychological boost for the crowd-pleaser president.

Remember Tulsa? After promising a full stadium, seats went unoccupied. Instead of 20,000 attendees, there were 6,200 people. Campaign Manager Brad Pascale was demoted. Members of the organizing committee for the event came down with coronavirus. 

Trump has been obsessed with crowds since day one. “We will have record-setting turnout for the inauguration,” Trump told the New York Times in January 2017. So when the inauguration rolled around, members of the media evaluated that claim — and Trump came up short. Attendance at the 2017 event visibly paled in comparison to Barack Obama’s first inauguration, eight years prior. 

2020 is a political year unlike any other. Aerial views of convention halls will not provide much information. This year it’s all about viewers, users and followers. On that score, former Vice President Joe Biden’s team has already shown that it can put together a top-level event without a live audience. But look for President Trump to downplay the viewership this week for the Democratic convention and then to inflate his own e-numbers next week after the Republican convention.

In this race, crowds matter to one side. Trump and the Republican National Committee will want their party’s convention to look like 1976 did in Kansas City, Missouri, when Ronald Reagan and Gerald Ford brought the house down. The hall was so crowded that, according to historian Craig Shirley, a delegate broke her leg in the melee. “It was riotous.” The event drew gavel-to-gavel coverage on the networks. 

So, get ready for a fight over whose convention draws more likes. This is 2020, and all bets are off.

Tara D. Sonenshine is former U.S. under secretary of state for public diplomacy and public affairs and currently a public diplomacy fellow at the George Washington University School of Media and Public Affairs.