Cook Political Report unveils 18 toss-up House races for 2026

The nonpartisan election handicapper Cook Political Report is rating 10 Democratic-held seats and eight seats held by Republicans as toss-ups ahead of the 2026 election.

The 10 Democratic seats are represented by Reps. Adam Gray (Calif.), Derek Tran (Calif.), Jared Golden (Maine), Gabe Vasquez (N.M.), Laura Gillen (N.Y.), Don Davis (N.C.), Marcy Kaptur (Ohio), Emilia Sykes (Ohio), Vicente Gonzalez (Texas) and Marie Gluesenkamp Perez (Wash.).

The seats the Cook Political Report sees as most vulnerable for Republicans are those represented by Reps. David Schweikert (Ariz.), Juan Ciscomani (Ariz.), Gabe Evans (Colo.), Mariannette Miller-Meeks (Iowa), Tom Barrett (Mich.), Don Bacon (Neb.), Ryan Mackenzie (Pa.) and Scott Perry (Pa.).

“Though their majority is dangerously thin, in some ways, Republicans are starting out in a stronger position than they were in 2018. Trump’s latest victory was broad; he clawed back ground in suburbs that had lurched to the left since 2016 and made massive inroads in urban areas,” Cook Political Report’s Erin Covey and Matthew Klein wrote.

“Almost all of the most competitive House districts moved to the right between 2020 and 2024 (Washington’s 3rd District was the lone exception),” they added.

The duo noted that there were bright spots for both parties. For Republicans, they could gain as many three seats given the party will have power over the redistricting process in Ohio. Meanwhile, more Democrats outperformed former Vice President Kamala Harris in November compared to the number of Republicans who outperformed President Trump in competitive House races.

The National Republican Congressional Committee (NRCC) touted the handicapper’s analysis in a statement, with spokesperson Mike Marinella saying, “The math is in our favor, and it’s clear House Republicans are on offense for 2026.”

“House Democrats are in shambles — they don’t have a clear message and they’re incapable of selling voters on their failed agenda. We will work tirelessly to hold the Democrat Party accountable and grow our Republican majority,” he added.

But with a slim majority in the House, Democrats only need to net three seats in order to flip the chamber. The party will likely also benefit from the traditional headwinds the party in power faces during midterm cycles, elections that are historically seen as a check on the party in the White House.

“Voters will hold House Republicans accountable for failing to lower costs while fostering a culture of corruption that benefits their billionaire backers,” Courtney Rice, a spokeswoman for the Democratic Congressional Campaign Committee (DCCC), said in a statement.

“The political environment is in Democrats’ favor heading into 2026 – and with stellar candidates who are focused on delivering for their districts, House Democrats are poised to take back the majority in 2026,” she added.

Updated at 5:04 p.m. EST