Monmouth poll: Trump, Biden statistically tied in Pennsylvania

President Trump has gained 9 points on Joe Biden in Pennsylvania over the past six weeks, pulling into a statistical tie with the Democratic presidential nominee in a key battleground state, according to a new poll.

The latest Monmouth University survey finds Biden at 49 percent and Trump at 45 percent among all registered voters in the state. That’s within the poll’s 4.9-point margin of error and a far closer race than Monmouth found in July, when Biden led 53 to 40 among registered voters.

The race is even closer among likely voters.

When Monmouth forecasts a high turnout election, Biden leads Trump 49 to 46. In a model reflecting lower turnout, Biden’s lead is only 1 point, at 48 to 47. In July, Biden led by 10 points in the high turnout model and by 7 points in the low turnout model.

“This is really a game of inches,” said Monmouth pollster Patrick Murray. “The Trump campaign is looking to peel off a little bit of Biden support here and a little bit there. It may be working, despite the fact that Pennsylvania voters personally like the Democrat more, although this gap has narrowed.”

The race has tightened as men in the state have swung wildly in favor of Trump. The president leads by 19 points among men, compared to his 2-point advantage in July.

The race has also grown closer among voters under the age of 50, moving from a 29 point advantage for Biden in July to a 9 point advantage presently.

Biden leads by 24 points among women and by 11 points among seniors. He has a 60 point lead among people of color, although the number of undecided voters here has gone up from 3 percent to 9 percent since July.

“The Republican convention attempted to sow some seeds of doubt among core Democratic blocs, especially young and urban voters,” said Murray. “It looks like they may have had a small amount of success with that, at least for now.”

Biden has traveled to Pennsylvania, which is not far from his Delaware home, more than any other state since the coronavirus lockdown began. Earlier this week, Biden traveled to Pittsburgh to deliver a speech blaming Trump for stoking racial unrest in the country.

A majority of Pennsylvanians, 53 percent, say they trust Biden on the issue of race relations, compared to 42 percent for Trump.

Fifty-two percent say they’re not worried about the suburbs being threatened by violent protests. However, 39 percent of independents and 30 percent of Democrats say people moving into their neighborhoods bringing crime and lower property values is at least a minor problem.

“About 1 in 6 Democrats who actually agree with the GOP’s warning of a threat to the suburbs say they will vote for Trump,” Murray said. “Now, this group represents a fairly small proportion of the total electorate, but it is still large enough to make a difference in a very close race.”

Biden’s favorability rating is at 48 percent positive and 46 negative in the poll, with 37 percent of Pennsylvanians viewing him very unfavorably. In July, 32 percent had a very unfavorable view of Biden.

Trump’s favorability rating is at 44 positive and 51 negative, with 45 percent viewing him very unfavorably. In July, 47 percent had a very unfavorable view of Trump.

The Monmouth University poll of 400 registered voters in Pennsylvania was conducted Aug. 28-Aug. 31 and has a margin of error of 4.9 percentage points.