New Monmouth poll finds Biden with 6-point lead

by Max Greenwood - 09/28/20 1:50 PM ET

Joe Biden has a 6-point lead over President Trump nationally, according to a new Monmouth University poll released on Monday.

The poll shows the former vice president with 50 percent of the vote to Trump’s 44 percent, with 2 percent of respondents undecided and the rest split among third-party candidates.

Still, the poll suggests that Trump’s deficit is narrowing. Monmouth polling released over the summer showed Biden with leads ranging from 10 to 13 points. After the Democratic and Republican national conventions last month, Biden carried a 9-point lead over Trump.

Trump also appears to be closing the gap with independent voters. The Monmouth poll showed those voters split, 43 percent for Trump and 41 percent for Biden. In early September, a Monmouth poll showed Biden leading Trump with those voters, 47 percent to 40 percent.

In another positive sign for Trump, he now holds a small edge among voters in swing counties — those where he or then-Democratic nominee Hillary Clinton won by fewer than 10 points in 2016. Biden previously led Trump among those voters 47 percent to 40 percent in an early September Monmouth poll. The two candidates are now statistically tied, with 47 percent going for Trump and 46 percent supporting Biden.

Voters are also split on whether Trump should replace the late Justice Ruth Bader Ginsburg on the Supreme Court before the November election, with 46 percent approving of such a move and 51 percent saying that it should be put off until after the vote.

Trump on Saturday named Judge Amy Coney Barrett as his third Supreme Court nominee, and Senate Majority Leader Mitch McConnell (R-Ky.) has said he will move quickly to confirm her. That move has infuriated Democrats, who have urged Republicans to stick to the precedent they set in 2016 when they declined to hold a confirmation hearing for former President Obama’s Supreme Court nominee Merrick Garland.

The Monmouth University poll surveyed 809 registered voters nationwide Sept. 24-27. It has a margin of sampling error of 3.5 percentage points.