Exit ’94

There were 73 House Republicans swept into power on the red wave of 1994. Next year only a maximum of 16 of them (if they are all reelected) will still be serving in the lower chamber.

Rep. John Shadegg (Ariz.) this week became the sixth GOP member of the class of 1994 to call it quits. Life in the House minority is difficult, and the class of 1994 is finding this out only now. Other than Shadegg, Reps. Barbara Cubin (Wyo.), Tom Davis (Va.), Ray LaHood (Ill.), Dave Weldon (Fla.) and Jerry Weller (Ill.) have announced their retirements.

Members retire for various reasons, and it should be noted that several of the GOP class of 1992 and 1996 are no longer on Capitol Hill. But still, the stats for the 1994 class are striking.

A dozen of them were short-timers, bounced out of office in 1996. There were seven GOP casualties in 2006, including scandal-ridden Reps. Mark Foley (Fla.) and Bob Ney (Ohio). Two in the class became governors: Reps. Bob Ehrlich (Md.) and Mark Sanford (S.C.). Ehrlich lost his reelection bid in 2006; Sanford has been mentioned as a possible vice presidential candidate.

Meanwhile, ex-Rep. Joe Scarborough (Fla.) has become a television talk show host; former Rep. Steve Largent (Okla.) lost his gubernatorial bid in 2002 and is now president of the CTIA-The Wireless Association; and Rep. Sonny Bono (Calif.), a celebrity entertainer, was killed in a 1998 skiing accident.

None of the remaining class members are in the House GOP leadership, but seven are in the upper chamber: Sens. Sam Brownback (Kan.), Richard Burr (N.C.), Saxby Chambliss (Ga.), Tom Coburn (Okla.), John Ensign (Nev.), Lindsey Graham (S.C.) and Roger Wicker (Miss.).

So while the House freshman class of 1994 wields considerable influence in the Senate, its clout in the lower chamber is dwindling.

Of course, it is not alone in announcing its retirements. A growing number of House Republicans have come to the realization that getting back the majority may take many years. There are 29 House Republicans who have said that they will not seek reelection, and this number will surely grow in the coming weeks.

The Democratic Congressional Campaign Committee (DCCC) issued a memo this week noting that there are more retirements this year than there have been for at least 78 years. The DCCC also mentioned that after wave elections like in 2006, the majority party usually loses seats. In 1984, Republicans picked up 14 seats after losing 26 in 1982. In 1996, Democrats picked up nine seats after losing 52 in 1994, according to the DCCC calculation.

With their fundraising advantages and accumulating GOP retirements, Democrats seem likely to buck the trend and pick up more seats this year. Another wave appears to be forming.