Democrats see Maine governor as best option to unseat Susan Collins

Eyes in Maine are on Gov. Janet Mills (D) as Democrats await a final decision from her on whether she will challenge Sen. Susan Collins (R-Maine), their top target in the 2026 midterms.

Mills, subject to months of speculation about a possible Senate run as she’s unable to seek a third term in office, is viewed as perhaps Democrats’ best chance of finally ousting Collins after several failed attempts in the past. She cast some doubt in April about whether she would run, though she didn’t definitively rule it out.

Democrats likely face an uphill battle to defeat Collins regardless, but they believe the two-term governor could be the ideal candidate to take on the longtime senator.

“She’s demonstrated twice that she is able to win statewide. There’s not too many people in the state that can say that. She’s got a long record in public office. Mainers know her. They like her,” said David Farmer, a Democratic consultant who worked for former Gov. John Baldacci (D). “They’re energized by the fact that she stood up to the president, not because she wanted to, but because he singled her out.” 

Collins has been one of the strongest political figures in Maine for decades, building a reputation as a maverick, independent-minded senator. As Maine’s only Republican statewide officeholder, Collins has been a target in the past but has repeatedly held on. 

Democrats were bullish about their chances in 2020, centering enthusiasm and significant spending on then-state House Speaker Sara Gideon. The broader political headwinds seemed likely to help, as Maine is a Democratic-leaning state on the federal level and voted for former President Biden by 9 points. 

But Collins won comfortably over Gideon by almost the same amount, taking many by surprise. 

Still, observers see Mills as having a solid shot. She comfortably won both of her gubernatorial elections after eight years of Republican leadership, becoming the state’s first female governor. She’s also enjoyed a net positive favorability rating, though it has dropped over the past few years. 

“She knows the state of Maine well. She guided the state through the pandemic as well as any other governor. She is a careful, smart campaigner,” said Daniel Shea, a professor of government at Colby College in Maine. “She would run the campaign the way a seasoned Maine politician would run the campaign.”

Mills came onto the national stage more recently for her faceoff with President Trump over his executive order to withhold federal funding from states that permit transgender athletes to compete on women’s and girls’ sports teams. 

But Mills hasn’t been clear about whether she’ll actually enter the race. 

She told a local Maine outlet in April that she wasn’t currently planning to challenge Collins or seek another office. But she also said “things can change week to week, month to month.” 

If she doesn’t enter, Democrats have alternatives. 

Jordan Wood, who served as chief of staff for former California Rep. Katie Porter (D) but is originally from Maine, became the first Democrat to enter the race in April. 

“I was born and raised in Lewiston, Maine and I’m running for Senate because Washington’s broken political system is holding us back from solving the problems Mainers face,” he said in a statement. “Mainers are ready for a new generation of leadership that has the courage to take on both parties to do what’s best for Maine, not just offer concern.” 

David Costello, the 2024 Democratic nominee for Senate who lost to independent Sen. Angus King, launched his bid last week. 

“Not only am I trying to sell my candidacy on the ideas of substantive reform, I’m also trying to say that if you look at my background, having grown up in a mill town and working-class family in Maine … [being] engaged in government at all levels and [having] a very extensive public service record, I think it certainly could resonate very well against Sen. Collins,” he said. 

Other possible candidates who’ve expressed interest include state House Speaker Ryan Fecteau and former state Sen. Cathy Breen. 

Regardless of who eventually becomes their nominee, Democrats point to potential vulnerabilities for Collins. 

An April poll found 71 percent of voters don’t want Collins to run for reelection, and her approval rating was significantly underwater. 

She also faces a potentially perilous vote ahead as Trump’s “big beautiful bill” advances in Congress. Collins has expressed concerns about possible cuts to nondefense spending, including Medicaid, but Democrats have signaled their intent to go on offense against the GOP over it. 

Her position as chair of the powerful Appropriations Committee will put even more of a spotlight on her. 

She’s also taken tough votes in the past, such as her vote in favor of confirming Justice Brett Kavanaugh, who was a key vote in the Supreme Court’s ruling overturning Roe v. Wade. 

“Mainers are fed up with Susan Collins for selling them out to advance her party’s agenda of gutting Medicaid, laying off workers, threatening Maine businesses to enable chaotic economic policies, and being the decisive vote to confirm the Supreme Court Justice who overturned Roe v Wade,” said state Democratic Party spokesperson Tommy Garcia. “Susan Collins has failed Mainers — and that’s why they are eager and ready to elect a new Senator in 2026.”   

But Republicans expressed optimism about her chances of winning again, presuming she goes forward with her expected reelection bid, particularly given her past success. 

Lance Dutson, who served as communications director for Collins’s 2014 campaign, noted that several notable figures have jumped into the governor’s race already, but they haven’t entered the Senate race yet, possibly signaling hesitation to face Collins. 

“The top-tier Democrats in the state are not getting into the Senate race. And I firmly believe it’s because of the results of 2020 that [they] threw everything they possibly could throw at Senator Collins in a very challenging year, and she crushed them,” Dutson said.

Republicans also say even a candidate with high name recognition like Mills could have baggage from a declining approval rating and being out front on an issue like transgender athletes in women’s sports, which Democrats have taken attacks on. 

“Janet Mills is a classic Maine politician. She’s from the rural part of the state. She’s more grounded than some of the other candidates the Democrats have put up,” Dutson said. “But it’s a big difference being at the Maine State House and then going against this really juggernaut political machine of Senator Collins.”