One senator’s choice: ObamaCare or reelection

The Zogby Poll shows Arkansans opposed to the Obama/Reid bill
by 28-64, with 50 percent “strongly opposed” to the legislation. To swim in the
face of such a current of public opinion is risky business for a U.S. senator.

Lincoln’s most likely Republican opponent, state Sen.
Gilbert Bennett, is hot on her heels in the poll, trailing by only 41-39. But
asked who they would support if Lincoln votes for ObamaCare, Arkansas voters
switch to Bennett, giving him a 49-36 victory. That Lincoln goes from two
points ahead to 13 points behind over one Senate vote illustrates the potency
of the opposition to healthcare changes.

Most Arkansans don’t know how Lincoln will vote. Forty-two percent
predicted that she would back the bill, but 24 percent said she was more likely
to oppose it. Thirty-six percent did not know.

Her fellow Arkansas senator, Mark Pryor (D), is also in play
on this legislation. Thirty-five percent of his voters think he will vote yes,
while 18 percent think he will vote no and 47 percent don’t know.

While Pryor is not up for reelection this year, he is also
almost certainly signing his political death warrant if he votes for the bill.

This survey, taken by Zogby, was funded by the League of
American Voters as part of its efforts to influence swing senators and defeat
the healthcare legislation. The League has been running ads in Arkansas aimed
at explaining the costs of the bill both for the old and the young. The polling
shows that the ads are working.

The League has run ads in Indiana, North Dakota, Nebraska,
Louisiana, North Carolina, Virginia, Maine, Montana, Colorado, Florida and
Connecticut to push swing senators to oppose the bill. It will retain Zogby to
do surveys in many of these states to bring home to their senators how strongly
those they represent do not want this bill to pass.