Pollster Frank Luntz: ‘I would bet on’ Trump being 2024 GOP nominee

Veteran GOP pollster Frank Luntz says that former President Trump “could never win” the 2024 general election, but that he “would bet on” Trump to be the GOP nominee.

“If Donald Trump runs for president as a Republican, he’s the odds-on favorite to win the nomination,” Luntz said during an appearance on The New York Times podcast “Sway” released Thursday. “He could never win a general election, but I can’t imagine losing a Republican primary. … I would bet on him to be the nominee and I would bet on him losing to whatever Democratic nominee there was.”

Trump has repeatedly floated — but not committed to — running again after losing to President Biden last year, though in interviews and public statements since leaving office he has pledged to help Republicans regain control of the House and Senate in the 2022 midterm elections. 

“As you know, it’s very early. But I think people are going to be very, very happy when I make a certain announcement,” Trump told conservative pundit Candace Owens this week about a potential run for president in 2024. 

“You know, for campaign finance reasons, you really can’t do it too early because it becomes a whole different thing. … Otherwise I think I’d give you an answer that you’d be very happy with. So we’re looking at that very, very seriously,” he said, before adding, “All I’d say is: Stay tuned.”

The former president has also sharply criticized Senate GOP leadership and threatened to back primary challengers against Republicans who have been critical of him and his agenda, such as Sen. Lisa Murkowski (Alaska) and House GOP Conference Chairwoman Liz Cheney (Wyo.).

Luntz, who has been critical of Trump for peddling false claims of widespread voter fraud during the 2020 presidential election, says his research indicates the former president’s messaging is working with the GOP base. 

“More than two-thirds of Republicans believe that the election was stolen,” Luntz reported. “What Donald Trump is saying is actually telling people it’s not worth it to vote. Donald Trump single-handedly may cause people not to vote. And he may be the greatest tool in the Democrats’ arsenal to keep control of the House and Senate in 2022.” 

Other Republicans considered potential 2024 hopefuls include former Ambassador to the United Nations Nikki Haley, Sen. Ted Cruz (Texas), Sen. Josh Hawley (Missouri) and Florida Gov. Ron DeSantis.