On The Money — Breaking down the January job boom

Happy Friday and welcome to On The Money, your nightly guide to everything affecting your bills, bank account and bottom line. Subscribe here: digital-release.thehill.com/newsletter-signup. 

Today’s Big Deal: The U.S. gained 467,000 jobs last month, blowing away experts’ predictions. We’ll also explore the House passage of its China competitiveness bill and the renewed push to prevent a government shutdown.  

But first, Michael Avenatti got some bad news today. 

For The Hill, we’re Sylvan Lane, Aris Folley and Karl Evers-Hillstrom.  Reach us at slane@digital-release.thehill.com or @SylvanLane, afolley@digital-release.thehill.com or @ArisFolley and kevers@digital-release.thehill.com or @KarlMEvers.  

Let’s get to it. 

Five takeaways on a stunning jobs report  

Rarely have so many economists been so glad to be so wrong about the jobs report.  

The U.S. economy added 467,000 jobs in January and the unemployment rate budged little at 4 percent, according to the Labor Department, despite widespread fears of an omicron-driven employment wipeout. 

While most economists expected the U.S. to lose jobs amid a record-breaking surge of COVID-19 cases, the January jobs report showed just how resilient the recovery has been—and for far longer than it seemed. 

• Job growth held up against omicron: Several private sector gauges of job growth and activity signaled sharp declines in January as cases spiked last month and consumers pulled back from dining out, entertainment and travel. Even so, the momentum of the recovery and the intense need for workers helped the labor market power through the new wave of the pandemic. 
• The labor market has been stronger than it seemed: While January job growth was remarkable, major upward revisions to November and December’s employment gains are more significant to the overall picture of the economy. The Labor Department revised the November gain of 249,000 jobs up to 647,000 and December’s meager gain of 199,000 jobs up to 510,000—a total of 709,000 more jobs than previously reported. 
• Demand for workers is breaking seasonal hiring patterns: The strong January jobs gain may have been boosted by the pandemic disrupting the normal seasonal churn of the workforce. With workers in short supply, businesses have been reluctant to lay off staff and could be holding onto employees initially counted as seasonal hires. 
• Biden catches a break—for now: The stellar January jobs report is likely a relief for President Biden and Democratic lawmakers as they attempt to sell the strength of the economy with less than a year until the midterm elections. But new January inflation figures from the Labor Department’s consumer price index (CPI) are coming next week. 
• Fed rate hikes are full steam ahead: The Federal Reserve was already well on its way to hiking interest rates in March after a year of inflation rising well above its 2 percent annual target and the unemployment rate within striking distance of pre-pandemic levels. The strong jobs numbers in January’s report, along with the 5.7 percent annual increase in wages, has cleared the path for the Fed to pull back faster. 

Sylvan has it all here. 

 

COMPETES ACT COMPLETED

House passes sweeping China competition bill 

The House passed legislation on Friday aimed at bolstering domestic supply chains and scientific research to make the U.S. more competitive with nations like China.  

Lawmakers passed the bill largely along party lines, 222-210, with one Republican voting for it and one Democrat voting no. Passage comes about seven months after the Senate passed its version in June with the support of 18 GOP senators.  

• Both chambers will now have to reconcile their competing versions and ultimately reach an agreement that can draw at least 10 Republicans in the evenly split upper chamber, since it will be subject to Senate rules requiring at least 60 votes for most legislation. 
• The massive legislative package includes measures to address the global semiconductor chip shortage and strains on the U.S. supply chain, both of which have contributed to the recent spike in inflation. 
• While many top Democrats primarily highlighted the measures meant to help ease domestic supply chain woes, the legislation also includes numerous provisions to exert diplomatic pressure on the Chinese government. 

It includes $52 billion to incentivize domestic semiconductor chip production as well as $45 billion in grants and loans through the Department of Commerce to help support and enhance manufacturing facilities to strengthen domestic supply chains.  

The Hill’s Cristina Marcos has more here. 

SHUTDOWN COUNTDOWN

Democrats expect third short-term spending bill to prevent shutdown  

House Democrats are eyeing a short-term spending bill to prevent a government shutdown later this month — a vote some lawmakers are expecting next week. 

Without congressional action, federal funding will expire on Feb. 18, and bipartisan leaders in both chambers are scrambling to secure a longer-term omnibus spending bill to keep the government open through the rest of the fiscal year, which ends on Sept. 30. 

• The negotiations have yielded no major breakthroughs in recent days. And with the House scheduled to be out of session for the week of Feb. 14 — and a number of lawmakers slated for overseas research trips during that recess — more and more members are expecting Democrats to bring a short-term patch, known as a continuing resolution (CR), to the floor next week. 
• However, Speaker Nancy Pelosi (D-Calif.) has been optimistic that negotiators will secure an omnibus deal in time to preclude the need for a CR — a message she reiterated on Friday. “We’re still working.”  

The duration of the Band-Aid also seems to be up in the air.  

“I don’t know the exact time,” said Rep. Mike Quigley (D-Ill.), a member of the House Appropriations Committee who is among those expecting a CR vote before the 18th. 

Read more here from The Hill’s Mike Lillis. 

THE PAC IS BACK

Corporate PAC donations to GOP objectors surpass $9 million since Jan. 6 

Corporate PACs affiliated with Fortune 500 companies and their trade associations have donated more than $9 million to Republicans who objected to the 2020 election results following the Jan. 6 insurrection, according to a new report from liberal watchdog group Accountable.US. 

Nearly every major corporation froze PAC giving after President Trump’s supporters stormed the Capitol in an effort to overturn the election, with many firms pledging to give financial support only to candidates who support democratic values. Most companies have since resumed their donations to the 147 Republicans who voted against certification.    

• Walgreens, Comcast and Eli Lilly and Co. recently ended their giving freezes with $5,000 PAC donations to House Minority Leader Kevin McCarthy (R-Calif.), who voted against certifying the 2020 election results. 
• Corporate America is wary of a GOP takeover in the 2022 midterms that would likely elevate McCarthy to Speaker, and PAC donations are one way that companies maintain a strong relationship with congressional leaders. 

“Corporations that couldn’t even go a year without compromising their own stated values on democracy clearly value having political influence over lawmakers even more — no matter what dangerous and undemocratic views they hold,” Accountable.US President Kyle Herrig said in a statement Friday. 

Karl has more on the new donation figures here. 

Good to Know

Ballots are being mailed to employees of Amazon’s Bessemer, Ala., location starting Friday, kicking off the second union election in as many years at the warehouse.  

Despite the victory of getting a second election, labor experts and Amazon critics are concerned that the company will be able to employ many of the same anti-union tactics it did the first time around without fear of punishment. 

Here’s what else we have our eye on: 

• Facebook’s active users decreased for the first time in its 18-year history in 2021, according to a recent earnings report. 
• Media complemerate News Corp. said it was the victim of a cyberattack likely to benefit the Chinese government. 
• Southwest Airlines announced that it will return to serving alcoholic beverages on flights almost two years after it paused its on-board beverage options in March 2020. 

 

ON TAP NEXT WEEK

Tuesday: 

• The House Financial Services Committee will hold a hearing on stablecoins at 10:00 a.m. 
• The Competitive Enterprise Institute (CEI) will host a webinar discussion on the risks of central bank digital currency, featuring a conversation with Rep. Tom Emmer at 12:00 p.m. 
• The House Ways and Means Subcommittee on Oversight will hold a hearing entitled “Hearing With the National Taxpayer Advocate on Challenges Facing Taxpayers” at 2:00 p.m. 
• The Senate Judiciary Subcommittee on Federal Courts, Oversight, Agency Action, and Federal Rights will hold a hearing entitled “Abusing Chapter 11: Corporate Efforts to Side-Step Accountability Through Bankruptcy” at 3:00 p.m.  

Wednesday: 

• The Senate Committee on Commerce, Science, and Transportation will hold a confirmation hearing to consider Gigi Sohn’s nomination to be FCC Commissioner at 10:00 AM. 
• The Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC) will hold its February open meeting to consider several pending items at 10:00 p.m. 
• The Senate Banking Subcommittee on Financial Institutions and Consumer Protection will hold a hearing entitled “The Role that Community Development Financial Institutions and Minority Depository Institutions Serve in Supporting Communities” at 2:30 p.m. 
• The Joint Economic Committee will hold a hearing entitled “Building a Better Labor Market: Empowering Older Workers for a Stronger Economy” at 2:30 p.m. 

Thursday: 

• The Senate Committee on Banking, Housing, and Urban Affairs will hold a hearing entitled “How Institutional Landlords are Changing the Housing Market” at 10:00 a.m. 

 

That’s it for today. Thanks for reading and check out The Hill’s Finance page for the latest news and coverage. We’ll see you Monday.