The Hill’s Morning Report – World poised for war

 

 

 

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Total U.S. coronavirus deaths reported today: 919,697. 

 

As of today, 75.2 percent of the U.S. population has received at least one dose of a COVID-19 vaccine and 63.8 percent is “fully vaccinated,” according to the Bloomberg News global vaccine tracker and the government’s definition. The percentage of Americans who have received third or booster doses is 27.3.

Any hour, any day, Russian forces encircling Ukraine could salute an order from Russian President Vladimir Putin to invade, a plan Putin reportedly envisions would upend the government in Kyiv and block NATO from ever expanding its membership to include Ukraine.

 

U.S. officials believe Putin has decided to invade Russia’s neighboring democracy and has already communicated those plans to the Russian military, possibly to begin before Sunday. Russia has 130,000 troops poised to move into Ukraine, knowing its forces can overpower Ukraine’s army and that the international community’s threatened punishments will be economic and trade-related.

 

President Biden, who vows swift and costly sanctions in coordination with allies, spoke again with Putin on Saturday. Biden talked for nearly an hour with Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky on Sunday. German Chancellor Olaf Scholz is scheduled to meet with Putin on Tuesday in Moscow after meetings in Kyiv today. French President Emmanuel Macron, who met Putin in Moscow last week, is trying to use diplomacy to buy time, pursuing a security agreement that he envisions could potentially gain Putin’s approval while also safeguarding independence for Ukraine. One idea floated by analysts and experts is a moratorium on NATO expansion or a neutral status for Ukraine to defuse the tensions. There has been no breakthrough.

 

Ukraine Foreign Minister Dmytro Kuleba said Sunday that Kyiv requested an emergency meeting of the Organization for Security and Cooperation in Europe to discuss the Russian deployments near the country’s borders.

 

The Hill: White House warns of possible military action “very soon.”

 

CNN: National security adviser Jake Sullivan on Sunday warned that Russia has positioned its military to be able to invade Ukraine “any day now.”

 

Biden reiterated U.S. commitments to diplomacy but also backing for Ukraine, while Zelensky invited Biden to his country. “I am convinced that your arrival in Kyiv in the coming days, which are crucial for stabilizing the situation, will be a powerful signal and contribute to de-escalation,” Zelensky said, according to a Ukrainian government summary of the conversation.  

 

President Sauli Niinistö of Finland, who knows Putin well, is not optimistic the Russian president will reverse the course he’s on. Putin “respects the one who is fighting back,” Niinistö has said. It’s an assessment he shared last month with Biden and the White House. Niinistö noted a change he’s seen in Putin over time. “His state of mind, the deciding, decisiveness — that is clearly different,” Niinistö said. He believes Putin felt he had to seize on “the momentum he has now” because of his belief that NATO expansion poses a threat to Russia (The New York Times).

 

Ahead of an anticipated invasion of an Eastern European democracy by a nuclear superpower wary of Western encroachment, a dozen nations urged their citizens to exit Ukraine immediately. International commercial flights, cautious about safety in the airspace above the region, halted or redirected flights into and out of Ukraine (CNBC). Biden has publicly advised American citizens who could be trapped or detained in Ukraine that the U.S. military will not be able to evacuate them if they do not leave now (national flag pictured below in Kyiv) (The Hill).

 

 

 

 

Here’s what else we’re watching this week:

 

> The Federal Reserve is at the center of debate as inflation rises, naysayers urge the central bank to immediately stop adding to its balance sheet and some critics insist inflation is now embedded because the Fed was too slow to perceive the dangers. The Fed releases minutes on Wednesday from its January meeting and the Senate Banking Committee on Tuesday will vote on Fed nominees, including Chairman Jerome Powell and three nominees to the Fed Board of Governors.

 

> Will Canada-esque truck convoys be rolling into major U.S. cities soon to protest COVID-19 restrictions? In Ottawa, truckers will not budget. But with arrests, police in Windsor, Ontario, on Sunday cleared the area near the Ambassador Bridge of demonstrators and illegally parked trucks and vehicles blocking the thruway across the Detroit River. The bridge, a route for bilateral trade, officially reopened late Sunday after being plowed and salted. “Today, our national economic crisis at the Ambassador Bridge came to an end,” Windsor Mayor Drew Dilkens declared (The New York Times and The Associated Press). 

 

> Biden has another few weeks to meet his self-imposed timeline to send the Senate a Black female Supreme Court nominee. He has a short candidate list, says he’s deep into reading and vetting and is gathering advice from senators and scholars. We’re all ears to find out which favorites he quietly interviews, possibly this week.

 

> ⛸ The Beijing Winter Olympics conclude on Sunday. Competitions this week will feature the USA-Finland women’s hockey semifinal Monday at 8:10 a.m. ET. If the U.S. players win, they will likely face Canada on Wednesday night in a rematch of sorts (the U.S. team won gold in 2018; Canada won in 2010 and 2014). … The women’s singles figure skating competition begins with the short program on Tuesday at 5 a.m., and continues with the free skate on Thursday at 5 a.m. … Finally, American Brittany Bowe goes for gold in the women’s 1000-meter speed skating event on Thursday at 3 a.m. Bowe narrowly missed out on a medal four years ago in the skate, but claimed the world record in the years since in the competition Bonnie Blair once owned. 

 

> On Thursday, Hillary Clinton will speak at the New York State Democratic Party Convention, a booking that sparks curiosity and speculation about 2024 (CNBC and New York Post). 

 

> A San Francisco Board of Education recall election happens on Tuesday. It’s a contest in which parents in the famously liberal city, now fed up with COVID-19 school closings, are determined to gain some say. The ballot features a recall against three school board members (KQED). … The political uprisings in states over masks in schools continue in Florida and Virginia (The Hill).

LEADING THE DAY

CONGRESS: Democrats on Capitol Hill got a welcome sight on Sunday as Sen. Ben Ray Luján (D-N.M.) said in a video to supporters that he is “on the road to recovery” after suffering a stroke more than two weeks ago and will be back in Washington for work in the near future. 

 

Luján, 49, appeared flanked by his doctors and said he will spend the coming weeks at an inpatient rehabilitation facility in his home state following surgery to relieve pressure on his brain. He suffered his stroke on Jan. 27, with his office revealing the news five days later. 

 

“I’m doing well. I’m strong. I’m back on the road to recovery, and I’m going to make a full recovery,” Luján said. “I’m proud to report, then I’ll be back on the floor of the United States Senate in just a few short weeks to vote on important legislation and to consider a Supreme Court nominee” (CNBC). 

 

 

 

 

The development is massive for Democrats given their majority in an evenly split 50-50 Senate. Any single absence, including a lengthy one by Luján, leaves the party unable to pass nominees or legislation on a party-line vote. 

 

Luján’s announcement also comes as Democrats on the Senate Judiciary Committee push Biden to speed up his selection of a Supreme Court nominee to replace the retiring Justice Stephen Breyer in order to prevent chance from interfering with the party’s majority in the upper chamber. 

 

Sen. Dick Durbin (D-Ill.), the panel’s chairman who met with Biden at the White House last week, says he wants the president to make a pick “soon.” 

 

“I think we understand the importance of the responsibility we have and we’re anxious to get this Senate moving forward. We started to pick up speed recently and we want to continue that,” Durbin said (The Hill).

 

The Hill: White House uses GOP’s own rhetoric to rebut Supreme Court criticisms.

 

The Associated Press: Sen. Lindsey Graham (R-S.C.) becomes early player to watch in Supreme Court drama.

 

The Hill: Speaker Nancy Pelosi (D-Calif.) won’t say if she’ll run for Speaker again if Democrats win: “That’s not a question.”

 

The Speaker was more forthcoming that “It’s not right,” in her view, that Sen. Joe Manchin (D-W.Va.) says soaring inflation negates the economic logic of Biden’s pending $2 trillion Build Back Better agenda (The Hill). … Here are five obstacles in the administration’s battle against rising inflation: pandemic-driven supply chain snarls, labor shortages, rent prices are rising, consumer psychology and energy shocks (The Hill). 

 

Jordain Carney and Laura Kelly, The Hill: GOP faces hurdles in blocking a Biden Iran deal.

 

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ADMINISTRATION:  Trade: The U.S. confirmed over the weekend that it suspended Mexican avocado imports because of a threat received by a U.S. Department of Agriculture inspector working in Mexico. The inspector works to ensure Mexican avocados pose no risks of disease or insect infestation to U.S. crops. The ban hits an industry with almost $3 billion in annual exports. “U.S. health authorities … made the decision after one of their officials, who was carrying out inspections in Uruapan, Michoacan, received a threatening message on his official cellphone,” the department wrote. The import ban came on the day that the Mexican avocado growers and packers association unveiled its Super Bowl ad for this year. Mexican exporters have taken out the pricey ads for almost a decade in a bid to associate guacamole as a Super Bowl tradition (The Associated Press).

 

> The Central Intelligence Agency may be collecting more data on American citizens than previously known. New revelations prompted calls for legislative action from civil rights organizations and privacy hawks in Congress. They want to bolster protections for Americans whose personal information may be swept up in national security investigations (The Hill).

 

> Vice President Harris will burnish her foreign policy credentials when she attends the Munich Security Conference this week. “It sends a message that she’s at the heart of these major foreign policy issues,” a source close to the White House says (The Hill).

IN FOCUS/SHARP TAKES

POLITICS: Graham said on Sunday that former President Trump is “hurting his chances” at becoming a two-time occupant of the White House if he remains laser-focused on his false claims of widespread voter fraud in the 2020 presidential election. 

 

When asked if he supports Trump’s comeback in 2024, Graham told ABC’s “This Week” that the 2024 GOP nomination is his “for the taking,” but suggested that the former president would have a more difficult time being elected if he “looks backward.” 

 

“Donald Trump is the most consequential Republican in the Republican Party today. He has a great chance of being president again in 2024, he’ll start comparing what he did as president versus what’s going on now, and how to fix the mess we’re in,” Graham said. “If he looks backward, I think he’s hurting his chances” (The Hill).

 

Graham’s remarks come amid questions about Trump’s standing and a perceived weakening of his grip on the party. The Washington Post on Sunday reported that Senate Minority Leader Mitch McConnell (R-Ky.) has gloated recently that not a single Senate Republican has sided with Trump in calling for him to be removed as leader.

 

In addition, polling has shown some chinks in the ex-president’s armor. According to a recent Economist-YouGov tracking poll, Trump’s favorability remains high among registered Republicans (76 percent). However, only 54 percent of Republicans said that they view him “very favorably,” a figure that is down from 68 percent right before the Jan. 6 attack on the Capitol last year. One month before the deadly riot, that number sat at 74 percent.

 

The New York Times: Inside McConnell’s campaign to take back the Senate and thwart Trump. 

 

The Hill: McConnell, House Minority Leader Kevin McCarthy (R-Calif.) split heading into November.

 

The New York Times: Selling Trump: A profitable post-presidency like no other.

 

The Hill: Conservative U.S. Senate candidate Josh Mandel tests Ohio’s appetite for red meat rhetoric. 

 

 

 

 

> Redistricting: There’s awkwardness in some corners of the Democratic Party as at least three member versus member House primaries are brewing due to the decennial redrawing of district lines. 

 

As The Hill’s Mychael Schnell points out, battles between lawmakers are shaping up in Georgia between Reps. Lucy McBath (D) and Carolyn Bourdeaux (D), in Michigan with Reps. Andy Levin (D) and Haley Stevens (D), and in Illinois as Reps. Sean Casten (D) and Marie Newman (D) make preparations. 

 

The redistricting process isn’t over yet due to pending finalization of maps and court rulings, but the current setup is laying the groundwork for these expensive and grueling campaigns in the coming months.

 

Speaking of court rulings, the decision by the Supreme Court last week allowing Alabama to press forward with redistricting maps that underrepresent the state’s Black voters is troubling to voting rights advocates. Chief among the concerns is that it could be a preview of the conservativce majority’s threat to protections against racial gerrymandering and other discriminatory elections practices. 

 

After the short-term loss, Democrats and civil rights activists have a bigger concern on their minds: that the court may gut what’s left of the Voting Rights Act next term (The Hill). 

 

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CORONAVIRUS: New Jersey Gov. Phil Murphy (D) on Sunday issued a defense of his recent move to lift his state’s mask mandate in schools, saying that the decision was based on local spread of the virus and predicted that local governments will follow suit as warmer weather begins to set in. 

 

“Our numbers are improving and I would use the word ‘dramatically,’” Murphy told “Face the Nation.” “Rate of transmission, positivity rate hospitalizations, cases in school transmissions — all going in a dramatically good direction. … The fact of the matter is our experience is very different right now from the average American state’s experience” (The Hill).

 

The policy takes effect on March 7.

 

> International: In Hong Kong, a surge in COVID-19 infections has “overwhelmed” the city (Reuters). … In New Zealand, protests against the country’s COVID-19 vaccine mandate continue despite efforts to disperse crowds. Prime Minister Jacinda Ardern  said demonstrations that became citizen harassment and intimidation of the people in and around Wellington “cannot be tolerated” (The Associated Press and Reuters).

The Morning Report is created by journalists Alexis Simendinger and Al Weaver. We want to hear from you! Email: asimendinger@digital-release.thehill.com and aweaver@digital-release.thehill.com. We invite you to share The Hill’s reporting and newsletters, and encourage others to SUBSCRIBE! 

OPINION

Can Democrats see what’s coming? by Ezra Klein, columnist, The New York Times. https://nyti.ms/3JrWCb8 

 

Cities aren’t facing up to their “long COVID” crisis: Downtown is in deep trouble, by Megan McArdle, columnist, The Washington Post. https://wapo.st/3gKfYfC 

 

How Congress can fight anti-semitism and violence, by Eric Fingerhut and Charlie Cytron-Walker, opinion contributors, The Wall Street Journal. https://on.wsj.com/3oI59Ph

WHERE AND WHEN

The House meets on Tuesday at 10 a.m. for a pro forma session. The House returns to work Feb. 28 following the Presidents Day recess.

 

The Senate convenes at 3 p.m. to resume consideration of the Postal Service Reform Act.

 

The president will return from Camp David at 10:30 a.m. Biden and Vice President Harris will receive the President’s Daily Brief at 11:30 a.m. in the Oval Office.

 

The vice president at 2:50 p.m. will deliver remarks at the Eisenhower Executive Office Building’s South Court Auditorium about federal investments in high-speed internet included in the bipartisan infrastructure law. 

 

The White House daily press briefing is scheduled at 2:30 p.m.

 

INVITATION: The Hill’s Virtually Live this week features “Race & Justice Imperative” on Tuesday at 1 p.m. ET with author Robert Bullard, Color of Change President Rashad Robinson, National Coalition on Black Civic Participation President Melanie Campbell and more for a wide-ranging discussion moderated by The Hill’s Steve Clemons and Nexstar Media’s Raquel Martin (info and registration HERE), plus “Food Security Summit” on Wednesday at 2 p.m. ET, with House Hunger Caucus Co-Chairs Reps. Jim McGovern (D-Mass.) and Jackie Walorski (R-Ind.) and more (details HERE).

 

Hill.TV’s “Rising” program features news and interviews at http://digital-release.thehill.com/hilltv or on YouTube at 10:30 a.m. ET at Rising on YouTube.

ELSEWHERE

➜ OLYMPICS: Russian figure skater Kamila Valieva was cleared on Monday to compete at the Beijing Winter Games after failing a drug test, setting her up to potentially win a second gold medal when she takes the ice as the favorite in the singles figure skating competition on Tuesday. Valieva, 15, was cleared in part because she is a minor and is not subjected to the same rules as an adult. She tested positive for a heart drug (ESPN). 

 

 

 

 

➜ SUPER BOWL REWIND: The Los Angeles Rams topped the Cincinnati Bengals, 23-20, in Super Bowl LVI after a late touchdown from game MVP Cooper Kupp (pictured below) and a pair of defensive stops made by future Hall of Famer Aaron Donald. Kupp notched a touchdown in his fourth straight playoff game, capping off a legendary season with a score to take the lead with 85 seconds left to play for Los Angeles, which was playing in the team’s home stadium. It’s the franchise’s first Super Bowl championship since 2000 when the team competed in St. Louis (ESPN).

 

 

 

THE CLOSER

And finally … The highlight of Super Bowl Sunday for some was seen on Animal Planet and Discovery+. We’re talking about the irrepressible Puppy Bowl. The New York Post summarized the upshot this way: “Team Fluff released their inner hounds to win the coveted Lombarky Trophy at Puppy Bowl 2022.” 

 

With Commander, Major and Willow (and the late Champ) in mind, first lady Jill Biden taped a pro-pet message broadcast during Sunday’s Puppy Bowl XVIII (People). 

 

This year, there were more than 100 adorable competitors from 63 shelters in 33 states, and thankfully, there’s a slideshow of the — don’t forget, adoptable — players HERE.