Bosnia, Ukraine and the dangers of ethnic nationalism

Thirty years ago the tiny country of Bosnia-Herzegovina exploded into a civil war that took the lives of more than 97,000 people and included the worst genocide in Europe since WWII. 

With ethnic nationalism once again rearing its ugly head in Russia and so many places around the world, the conflict serves as a grim reminder of where that ideology leads.  

In 1991-92, the Federation of Yugoslavia broke apart as its component republics declared independence rather than remain in a Serbian-dominated federation led by its ultranationalist president Slobodan Milošević. In the uncertainty following the collapse of communism Milošević exploited ethnic nationalism to gain and consolidate power. The strategy worked brilliantly but at a terrible cost to his country, the region, and ultimately himself.  

Milošević and his allies sought to create a greater Serbia by annexing territory occupied by ethnic Serbs in the other Yugoslav republics. With Serbians comprising just 2 percent of its population, Slovenia seceded in June 1991 following a 10-day conflict in which fewer than 100 people died. Macedonia had an equally small Serbian population and seceded peacefully in September 1991.  

Croatia did not fare as well. Serbians comprised just over 12 percent of its population, but they were concentrated in the eastern part of the country adjacent to Serbia and the Krajina region bordering Bosnia Herzegovina. Milošević supported separatist movements in these areas. The Yugoslav army defended the Serbian Republic of Krajina. These troops in cooperation with local forces expelled 80,000 Croats from the occupied territory.  

The conflict then spread to Bosnia-Herzegovina, the most heterogeneous of the former Yugoslav republics. In April 1992, it declared independence following a referendum in which the majority of Bosniaks (Bosnian Muslims comprising 44 percent of the population) and Croats (17 percent) voted to leave. Bosnian Serbs (31 percent) boycotted the elections and created the Bosnian Serb Republic.   

Milošević allowed Yugoslav army units comprised of Bosnian Serbs with their equipment to become the Bosnian Serb Army, giving the breakaway republic an overwhelming military advantage against the government in Sarajevo. These forces quickly gained control of approximately two-thirds of Bosnia-Herzegovina, much of the captured territory occupied by Bosniaks and Croats.   

Serb forces then began a campaign of “ethnic cleansing,” terrorizing non-Serbs into fleeing their homes through the use of rape, torture and murder. Paramilitary groups from Serbia, such as Arkan’s Tigers perpetrated many of the atrocities. The group was led by international criminal Zeljko Raznatovic (aka, Arkan), who allegedly had ties to the Serbian State Security Service.   

The campaign culminated in the massacre of 8,000 men and boys at Srebrenica in July 1995. Led by the United States, NATO intervened to stop the genocide. The Dayton Peace Accords divided Bosnia-Herzegovina into semi-autonomous Serb and Croat-Bosniak entities under a weak central government.  

The lesson of the conflict could not be clearer: there are no winners in an ethnic war. Four years after Dayton, NATO conducted a bombing campaign against Serbia to stop another genocide in Kosovo. Milošević fell from power and was extradited to the Hague, where he died during his trial for war crimes. Bosnian Serb President Radovan Karadžić and army commander Ratko Mladic were convicted of genocide and crimes against humanity and are serving life sentences. Arkan was gunned down in a Belgrade hotel.  

The biggest losers were the people of Bosnia-Herzegovina. As in all ethnic conflicts, civilians suffered terribly, accounting for 40 percent of the casualties. Sixty-six percent of those killed were Bosniaks, 26 percent Serbs and 8 percent Croats. Much of the country lay in ruins and its economy depended on international aid. Bosnia-Herzegovina is expected to lose 28.57 percent of its prewar population by 2050, as young people leave in droves seeking opportunities abroad.   

These grim statistics should be enough to convince anyone to avoid ethnic conflict at all costs. Unfortunately, the autocrats of the world have drawn a very different conclusion from the Bosnian war: ethnic hatred sells. No matter the cost to their own people, they willingly stoke the fires of bigotry to gain and hold power.  

The Serbian member of Bosnia-Herzegovina’s tripartite presidency, Milorad Dodik, denies Serbs perpetrated genocide and is encouraging separatism, the same movement that started the war in 1992. He enjoys support from Vladimir Putin, who is exploiting ethnic tensions to justify aggression against Ukraine and has just recognized the independence of Russian separatist regions of the country.  

Hungarian President Viktor Orban is promoting “ethnic homogeneity” and exploiting fears of illegal immigration. Orban advocates “illiberal democracy,” restricting opposition parties, curtailing an independent judiciary and other institutions and severely limiting freedom of the press. Indian Prime Minister Narendra Modi has embraced a strident Hindu nationalism that has led to the persecution of Muslims and other minorities.   

Even traditionally strong Western democracies such as France, the Netherlands, and Germany have seen the rise of far-right populist parties. Anti-immigrant feelings probably motivated a significant number of British people to vote for exiting the European Union in 2016. The Canadian truckers who blocked streets in Ottawa and the bridge between Windsor and Detroit expressed populist sentiments like American protestors at the open-up rallies of 2020.  

Donald Trump rode a wave of white populist anger into the White House, made the Republican Party his own, and attempted to stay in office after he lost the 2020 election. Trump made no secret of his disdain for constitutionally guaranteed “freedom of the press” and sought to restrict it. He frequently praised authoritarian leaders he no doubt wished to emulate, including North Korean dictator Kim Jung Un, Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdogan, and, of course, Vladimir Putin. He visited Modi and Philippine strongman Rodrigo Duterte and invited Orban to the White House. Since he left office, his supporters have been working tirelessly to make it harder for his opponents to vote.   

Frightened people are attracted to identity politics, and we live in frightening times. Climate change, economic distress, forced migration and especially COVID encourage people to draw close to their own group and blame others for their problems. There is no shortage of politicians willing to exploit this herd mentality.  

Ethnic populism may work in the short run, but it always comes at a terrible price, which is why we must oppose it wherever it appears. 

Tom Mockaitis (@DrMockaitis) is a professor of history at DePaul University and the author of “Violent Extremists: Understanding the Domestic and International Terrorist Threat.”