Republicans lead generic ballot in swing districts: NRCC poll

An internal poll from House Republicans’ campaign arm is giving their members good reason to be optimistic about taking back the chamber this year following the party’s annual issues retreat this week.

Republicans have a 4-point advantage over Democrats on a generic ballot among registered likely voters in 77 competitive congressional districts, according to a memo released by the National Republican Congressional Committee (NRCC) on Wednesday.

President Biden won those districts by 5 points in 2020, and the new lead is a 7-point improvement for Republicans since February 2021.

It also indicated that Republican messaging on the economy and oil prices is resonating with swing voters more than countermessaging from Democrats.

A slim majority, 52 percent, blamed high gas prices on the Biden administration and congressional Democrats not allowing more oil and gas production, an argument that Republicans have been hammering, while 31 percent said that the war in Ukraine and sanctions on Russian oil and gas accounted for the high prices, a point repeated by the White House and congressional Democrats.

“This survey confirms what we already knew: Republicans have a winning economic message and Democrats’ failure to combat rising costs is repelling swing-voters heading into the midterms,” Rep. Tom Emmer (R-Minn.), the chairman of the NRCC, said in a statement.

Results from the survey, first reported by Politico, will be presented to House Republicans at their annual retreat in Florida that starts Wednesday.

Biden’s approval rating was underwater, with 40 percent approval and 55 percent disapproval. Among Hispanic voters, with whom Republicans made gains in 2020 and hope to continue in 2022, Biden’s net approval rating was minus 10, down 31 points since February 2021.

Economic issues “dominate” the voters’ concerns, the NRCC memo said, with 46 percent of voters saying that they were most concerned about issues like inflation, the cost of living, jobs, and the economy.

The survey of 1,000 registered likely voters took place March 12-16 and has a margin of error of plus or minus 3.1 percentage points. Respondents were contacted by a mix of landline, cellphones and online panel.