The 20 House Democrats who will decide the fate of the healthcare reform bill

With
a historic vote one day away, a small group of undecided Democrats in the House will decide the fate of healthcare reform.

Speaker Nancy Pelosi’s decision not to strike a deal with
Rep. Bart Stupak (D-Mich.) on abortion provision is the latest indication that House
Democratic leaders still need more “yes” votes to get to the magic
number of 216.

{mosads}Stupak on Friday
scheduled an 11 a.m. press conference on Saturday, but then canceled it
less than an hour before it was going to start. However, an informed
source said the decision to cancel the press conference was made late
Friday night.

Over the last couple of days, Pelosi has leaned on many skeptical Democrats to vote with her.

There are many publicly undecided Democrats, but the Democrats
below are the legislators who are key to the success, or failure, of
the measure heading to the floor on Sunday.

* Marion Berry
(Ark.) Berry is retiring, but he has been critical of the president since
announcing his that he would not be seeking reelection. In recent days, Berry has appeared more on
the fence than leaning no. Berry is a backer of Stupak’s language. He
voted yes on the House health bill last year.

* Rick Boucher (Va.) Boucher is in a tough reelection and his vote is anyone’s guess at this point. Boucher was a no last fall.

*
Chris Carney (Pa.) Carney voted for the Stupak language and seemed like a
certain no earlier this month. But now he sounds like he will vote yes.
On March 19, Majority Whip James Clyburn (D-S.C.) talked at length with
Carney on the House floor. Carney, who is a GOP target this November,
voted yes last year.

* Mike McMahon (N.Y.) Many of McMahon’s on-the-fence colleagues in
the Empire State have announced their support over the last week.
McMahon told The Hill last week he was leaning no. He rejected bill
last year.

* Nick Rahall (W. Va.) He is a committee chairman so there is more
pressure on him to vote yes. Rahall is pushing hard for Stupak language
but won’t get it. He faces a difficult decision. He voted yes in 2009.

* Brian Baird (Wash.) Baird is undecided but because he is retiring,
many believe he will vote yes. However, Baird bucked his party by
saying the surge in the Iraq war worked. Baird voted no last year and
Clyburn is leaning on him to change his
vote this time.

* Peter DeFazio (Ore.) DeFazio’s threats to vote no because of Medicare
reimbursement issues have to be taken seriously. DeFazio voted for the
health bill last year, but he rejected the stimulus and the climate
change bill in 2009.

* Marcy Kaptur (Ohio) Kaptur is torn. She
wants the Stupak language, but still may vote yes. Others in Ohio
delegation have gone yes in recent days, but Kaptur has shown in the past she is
not reluctant to go against the grain. One of the few on this list who
will sail to reelection, making her vote that much more important.
Kaptur voted yes in 2009.

* Henry Cuellar (Texas) Cuellar is undecided. He voted for health
bill last year under pressure from the Speaker and the president.
Cuellar also voted for climate change but he is a conservative Democrat
who has bucked his party in the past. Cuellar said on Fox News that he
has not returned calls from the White House, saying he will vote what
is best for his district.

* Kathy Dahlkemper (Pa.) GOP target who is thought to be in
Stupak’s group. She is being leaned on heavily by the Speaker to vote
yes. Dahlkemper backed the health measure last year.

* Lincoln Davis
(Tenn.) Davis has been very silent, triggering speculation that his
expected no vote will go in the yes column. He voted no in 2009.

* Bill Foster (Ill.) Another undecided lawmaker from Illinois.
Leadership needed his vote on a controversial ethics package soon after
he was sworn into office. A probable yes vote. Foster voted yes on the
House measure in 2009.

* John Tanner (Tenn.) Tanner is retiring and has strongly disputed
rumors he will be offered a job in the Obama administration if he votes
yes. Tanner, a well-respected member of the House, is still publicly
undecided. He voted no in 2009.

* Jim Matheson (Utah) Matheson voted no in 2009 and,
complicating matters, the White House appointed his brother to a post
in the administration. He voted no in committee as well last year.
Matheson is expected to win reelection.

* Earl Pomeroy (N.D.) He supported package last year but he wasn’t
an easy yes vote. The Ways and Means Committee member, hailing from a red state, is undecided.

*
Alan Mollohan (W.Va.) Voted yes in November but now in a much tighter
reelection race. Mollohan has been mum on his vote. A complete wild
card.

* Glenn Nye (Va.) Nye is in a toss-up race. He voted no last time
and his vote will go a long way in determining whether Democratic
leaders get the votes.

* Zack Space (Ohio) Space is undecided. Other Ohio
Democrats, such as Reps. Betty Sutton and Mary Jo Kilroy, have gone
from undecided to yes. He supported the House
bill in 2009.

* Ciro Rodriguez (Texas) Rodriguez is considered more likely than
not to vote yes but he did vote for the Stupak language. Rodriguez
voted yes last year.

* Paul Kanjorski (Pa.) Kanjorski, a GOP
target this cycle, was one of four House Democrats to reject education
bill that will move with healthcare reform as part of reconciliation.
Kanjorski voted yes last year after voting for Stupak language.

For the latest updates on lawmakers’ votes, see The Hill’s whip list here.