House Dems will ‘survey’ but not whip Iraq bill votes

House Democratic leaders will not whip the Iraq supplemental spending bill, on grounds they don’t want to apply political pressure on a matter of war and peace.

“It’s a conscience vote,” House Majority Whip James Clyburn (D-S.C.) said after yesterday’s Democratic Caucus meeting. But he added his office had begun to “survey” members now that more are looking at the 170-page bill.
“Have we got the 218 votes to pass it? I don’t know,” Clyburn said.

{mosads}House leaders normally do not whip votes of conscience. But just because they are not whipping does not mean they are not counting. As Clyburn suggested, they can “survey” members of the caucus, which they have been doing since last week.

Democratic leaders expected to know where they stand on the vote count after two afternoon meetings yesterday with their chief deputy whips and senior whips, said a Democratic lawmaker with close ties to leadership.

The House Appropriations Committee will mark up the $124 billion bill tomorrow, and it will hit the House floor next week. For the bill to pass, no more than 15 Democrats may defect, assuming they get no help from Republicans.

Meanwhile, House Republicans stressed yesterday that they expect very few defections of their own. Most of their conference — including a majority of those who voted with the Democrats on the non-binding surge legislation last month — will oppose the spending bill.

Rep. Phil English (R-Pa.) said he disapproved of the bill’s language even though he was one of the 17 Republicans to vote for the Democratic surge resolution.

“Most of the 17 are prepared to fight” to fund the troops, English said, adding that it was “extremely dangerous” to try and put time constraints on the President.

Minority Whip Roy Blunt (R-Mo.) said, “I’m pretty confident and I think we are essentially united.” He explained that although the whip’s office had not tallied members regarding the supplemental, he didn’t believe that would be necessary.

House Democrats, for their part, emphasized unity.

“Each day we are building support and we’re moving in one direction, gradually building consensus,” said Kristie Greco, Clyburn’s spokeswoman.

“I think we’re holding together pretty well,” said Rep. Ellen Tauscher (D-Calif.).

Rep. Michael Capuano (D-Mass.), who represents Boston, said, “I spent the whole weekend reaching out to constituents. The feedback I’ve had has been better than I would have hoped.”

But Democrats may be at least 10 votes down due to liberal defections. That would give them a cushion of just five votes to spare to pass the bill.

Nine liberal Democrats — Reps. Lynn Woolsey (Calif.), Diane Watson (Calif.), Juanita Millender-McDonald (Calif.), Sheila Jackson Lee (Texas), Lloyd Doggett (Texas), Maxine Waters (Calif.), Steve Cohen (Tenn.), Keith Ellison (Minn.) and Dennis Kucinich (Ohio) — expressed opposition last week to the massive spending bill.

In addition, Rep. Jim Marshall, a conservative Georgia Democrat, will likely vote against the measure because he opposes a specific date for withdrawal, said his spokesman.

The centrist Blue Dog Coalition is not going to take a formal position on the spending bill, a Democratic aide said.
Liberal Democrats have criticized their leaders because they believe they are lagging behind public opinion. Recent polls show most Americans would favor withdrawing from Iraq sooner rather than later. An NBC-Wall Street Journal poll taken last week reported that 51 percent believe that the Congress would not go far enough to stop the war, while 41 percent say they are worried it would go too far. Americans were evenly split on whether to cut off funding for the war; 45 percent said yes, 48 percent said no.

A USA Today poll from late February showed that 58 percent of Americans favor withdrawing either immediately or within one year, while only 26 percent favor taking as long as needed.   

Waters, a founder of the Out of Iraq Caucus and a chief deputy whip, said she did not expect liberal Democrats, led by Rep. Barbara Lee (D-Calif.), to offer an amendment that would require troops to leave Iraq by year’s end.

“I think [Lee has] been told they’re not accepting amendments,” Waters said.

For her part, Lee said she was still discussing the issue with House leaders and appropriators. House Appropriations Chairman David Obey (D-Wis.) said he was discouraging lawmakers from offering amendments.

 “Pretty soon some members are going to have to start asking themselves whether they’re sure they’re absolutely right about everything,” Obey said. “What matters is not the specific language. We’re trying to have Congress play the role of bad cop so the Iraqi government understands this babysitting service may come to an end.”

The risk of not whipping the bill could put some freshman Democrats in the position of casting a pivotal vote, much like former Rep. Marjorie Margolies-Mezvinsky (D-Pa.). In 1993, she waited to cast the vote that passed President Clinton’s budget. Republicans started singing “Bye-bye, Marjorie” on the House floor, and she was defeated in the 1994 GOP wave.

Several freshman Democrats are undecided, including Rep. Brad Ellsworth (D-Ind.). Last week, he held 26 town hall meetings in 18 counties. Those gatherings attracted more people who favor bringing the war to an end than those who support the current course, he said.

Ellsworth said he is weighing public opinion in his district with his conscience and what he has learned from closed-door testimony in the House Armed Services Committee.

“I’m still dancing with it,” he said.

Another freshman Democrat, Rep. Chris Carney (Pa.), said he has not decided how to vote.  

Jackie Kucinich contributed to this article.