Wisconsin can’t stay out of the news

Just when months of uproar in Wisconsin had died down, Sen. Herb Kohl (D-Wis.) stoked it again by announcing last week that he will retire.

Kohl’s decision triggered a flurry of statements from potential candidates. It also increased the already-strong chances that Republicans will win control of the Senate in 2012. 

{mosads}Democrats are defending 23 seats, and Republicans only 10. (In other good news for the GOP: Sen. Scott Brown’s reelection chances in Massachusetts look better than anticipated, and scandal-tainted Sen. John Ensign, whose Nevada seat will be up next year, resigned earlier this month.) 

Still, Republicans need to pick up a net of three seats (if President Obama loses) or four (if Obama wins) in order to seize control of the upper chamber.

It could all come down to Wisconsin.

Obama won the state in 2008, as did Sen. John Kerry (D-Mass.) four years earlier. 

But in 2010, Ron Johnson (R) not only defeated then-Sen. Russ Feingold (D-Wis.), he took the seat by a comfortable five percentage points. Scott Walker (R) also won the governorship, prevailing in his race by five points. When Walker launched his effort to cut the state’s budget, he set off an intense nationwide debate about the rights of labor unions, most notably that of collective bargaining.

That brouhaha has faded, but the state is back in focus again following Tuesday’s announcement by House Budget Committee Chairman Paul Ryan (R-Wis.) that he will not try to take Kohl’s seat. This clears the way for others. 

Former Wisconsin Gov. Tommy Thompson (R) appears poised to jump into the race after opting not to challenge Feingold in 2004 and last year. 

Feingold has not ruled out running for Kohl’s seat, but should he run, he would probably have to fight for the nomination.

Rep. Tammy Baldwin (D-Wis.) has indicated that she’s close to launching a bid. If elected, Baldwin would be the first openly gay member of the Senate.

Rep. Ron Kind (D-Wis.) is another possible candidate.

The field will take time to shake out, but there is already one winner in all this, and that is Wisconsin’s media market. 

Campaign ads will be a constant throughout the primary and general-election seasons. Meanwhile, Obama and the GOP’s presidential candidate will do their share, too, to boost the state’s economy with an infusion of campaign cash. 

The president is a Chicago Bears fan, but he needs to woo the Green Bay Packer faithful next year. Losing Wisconsin could be a death blow to his reelection chances. And Democratic leaders know that if they lose Kohl’s seat, the GOP could be running the Senate in 2013.