Dem pollster: We’re ‘likely’ to hold Senate

A new survey conducted for two major Democratic groups shows their party trailing Republicans by 2 points across the 12 major Senate battleground states.

But the pollster who conducted the survey, Stan Greenberg of Greenberg Quinlan Rosner Research, expressed optimism at his findings nonetheless. 

{mosads}“I’m saying for the first time that Democrats are more likely to hold the Senate than not,” he said on a press call announcing the results.

GQRR surveyed 1,000 likely voters spread across Colorado, Michigan, New Hampshire, North Carolina, Alaska, Arkansas, Iowa, Louisiana, Georgia, Kentucky, Montana and West Virginia on issues for Women’s Voices Women Vote and Democracy Corps.

Republicans lead overall, 47 percent to Democrats’ 45 percent support, across those 12 states.

Drilling down into four states where GQRR conducted extra polling offers further troubling news for Democrats. In North Carolina, the survey shows Sen. Kay Hagan (D) leads GOP challenger Thom Tillis by 4 points, 45 percent to 41 percent. In Colorado, Sen. Mark Udall (D) is tied with GOP Rep. Cory Gardner at 45 percent, and in Iowa, Democratic Rep. Bruce Braley trails GOP state Sen. Joni Ernst, 44 percent to 45 percent. In Georgia, Democrat Michelle Nunn trails Republican David Perdue by 5 points, 41-46 percent.

But Greenberg pointed to the fact that Democrats are running up the score with unmarried women — leading that group by huge double-digit margins in each of those four states, and by 22 points across all the battleground states — as reason for the party to be optimistic about its chances this fall. 

He also argued that the survey shows the Affordable Care Act is becoming a rallying force for Democratic base voters, a development that, if borne out, could neutralize the benefit of the law for Republicans, who’ve seen the issue invigorate their base. Unmarried women list it as their second most important reason for voting.