Campaign overnight: What to watch for in tonight’s debates

Candidates in five of the nation’s top Senate races debate tonight — here’s what to look out for in each one:

GEORGIA: How will David Perdue (R) handle questions about his business record? Perdue has been in hot water this week over his comments in a 2005 deposition that he’d spent “most of my career” outsourcing, and he didn’t help himself when he declared he was “proud” of that record on Monday. He’s had a small lead against former charity executive Michelle Nunn (D) — and how his career is litigated going forward will go a long way in deciding whether this race will keep leaning his direction.

NORTH CAROLINA: What will North Carolina Speaker Thom Tillis (R) zero in on? Tillis has hit Sen. Kay Hagan (D-N.C.) for her husband’s company beneftting from stimulus funds, attacked President Obama and Hagan on Ebola and hit them on the Islamic State in Iraq and Syria in recent weeks. As he looks to close what’s been a small but sturdy gap in her favor in polling, what issue will he drill hardest into to shake up the race?

{mosads}VIRGINIA: Can former Republican National Committee Chairman Ed Gillespie (R) move the needle? Gillespie has been running a strong campaign — but Sen. Mark Warner (D-Va.) has been even stronger, and has retained a double-digit lead in most recent polls. Gillespie could have to take some chances he hasn’t in previous meetings — without dropping his nice-guy demeanor — and land some hard attacks on Warner if he’s going to change the race.

WEST VIRGINIA: Will Republican Rep. Shelley Moore Capito (R) maintain her relatively safe — but flawless — campaign? The Republican is heavily favored to pick up the seat for her party, and her only debate with Democratic Secretary of State Natalie Tennant isn’t likely to change that, unless she drops a serious gaffe. Debates rarely win or lose the race for a candidate, however, and this one is unlikely to prove any different for Tennant as she struggles against the red tide of the state.

COLORADO: Does Sen. Mark Udall (D) keep up the fire he showed in Monday’s debate? The incumbent’s performance in his first debate with Rep. Cory Gardner (R) was criticized by some as lackluster and disinterested, but Udall shifted his focus and strategy and came out swinging at Gardner on Monday. The congressman gave him a number of openings he could hammer tonight, like his insistence he never supported the government shutdown, but Udall left openings as well, like his admission that he voted for cuts to Medicare Advantage.

SENATE SHOWDOWN

AR-SEN (PRYOR): Sen. Mark Pryor (D-Ark.) struggled with his answer when asked how President Obama has handled the ongoing Ebola crisis on Monday.

MI-SEN (OPEN): The National Republican Senatorial Committee has cut the remaining television time it had reserved in Michigan amid signs former Secretary of State Terri Lynn Land (R) is having trouble catching Rep. Gary Peters (D-Mich.).

GA-SEN (OPEN): Businessman David Perdue (R) said he was “proud” of his business career and sought to reframe his comments in a 2005 deposition that he’d spent “most of [his] career” focused on outsourcing, arguing outsourcing was “the procurement of products and services to help your business run.”

IA-SEN (OPEN): The Washington Post reports that a super-PAC attacking Democrat Bruce Braley is run out of the office of a consultant for Republican Joni Ernst’s campaign, raising legal questions.

NH-SEN (SHAHEEN): Florida Sen. Marco Rubio (R) endorsed and campaigned with Republican Scott Brown on Tuesday.

KS-SEN (ROBERTS): Republicans are targeting independent Greg Orman for his role as head of a company that defaulted on $250 million in loans.

 

BATTLE FOR THE HOUSE

AZ-9 (SINEMA): Former United Nations Ambassador John Bolton defended Republican Wendy Rogers’s use of ISIS beheading footage in a recent ad portraying Rep. Kyrsten Sinema (D) as soft on terror.

BLOOMBERG: Former New York City Mayor Michael Bloomberg’s (R) super-PAC is spending $25 million for candidates in both parties, including Rep. Gary Peters (D-Mich.), running for Michigan’s Senate seat, and former Rep. Bob Dold (R-Ill.), as well as House candidates Carl DeMaio (R), former San Diego city councilman, and Redlands Mayor Pete Aguilar (D).

CLF: The Congressional Leadership Fund, a group affiliated with Speaker John Boehner (R-Ohio), is targeting Democratic Reps. Brad Schneider (Ill.), Julia Brownley (Calif.) and Carol Shea-Porter (N.H.) with a $3.1 million investment.

CO-6 (COFFMAN): Rep. Mike Coffman (R-Colo.) and former Colorado state Speaker Andrew Romanoff (D) sparred in a sharp-elbowed debate Tuesday night.

CA-17 (HONDA): Rep. Mike Honda (D-Calif.) and Democrat Ro Khanna (D) met for their first and only debate Tuesday, with Honda facing questions about whether his official staff did campaign work.

 

AD WATCH

AK-SEN (BEGICH): Republican Dan Sullivan is out with a new energy-focused ad accusing Sen. Mark Begich (D-Alaska) of thinking “Obama’s EPA should make decisions for Alaska.”

NC-SEN (HAGAN): Women Speak Out PAC, an affiliate of Susan B. Anthony List, is spending $620,000 on a television buy hitting Sen. Kay Hagan (D) for opposing a law banning abortions after 20 weeks. Meanwhile, NARAL Pro-Choice America is trying to turn that support into a liability for Republican Thom Tillis in a new ad, and the National Education Association hit Tillis on cuts to education funding.

NH-SEN (SHAHEEN): Sen. Jeanne Shaheen’s (D) latest ad charges Republican Scott Brown would “force” women to look at color photos of developing fetuses before getting an abortion.

CO-SEN (UDALL): The Service Employees International Union launched a new Spanish-language ad hitting Republican challenger Rep. Cory Gardner for not supporting a hike in the minimum wage. Meanwhile, Gardner hit Sen. Mark Udall (D) for his committee absences, and the National Republican Senatorial Committee accused him of running a “negative, single-issue campaign.”

KY-SEN (MCCONNELL): The Democratic Senatorial Campaign Committee charges Sen. Mitch McConnell (R-Ky.) “has Washington working for him, and not us” in a new ad.

LA-SEN (LANDRIEU)/AR-SEN (PRYOR)/KY-SEN (MCCONNELL): American Crossroads launched ads targeting Sen. Mary Landrieu (D-La.), the first of its $2.1 million buy for October; Sen. Mark Pryor (D-Ark.), part of a $2.5 million buy that began after Labor Day; and its first foray into the Kentucky Senate race with an ad tying Democrat Alison Lundergan Grimes to President Obama, backed by a $1.2 million week-long buy.

GA-SEN (OPEN): Georgia Democratic Senate candidate Michelle Nunn (D) hits Republican David Perdue on his comments in a legal deposition that he spent “most of my career” outsourcing jobs in a new ad. Meanwhile, Perdue ties Nunn to Obama in his own ad on job creation.

IA-SEN (OPEN): Republican Joni Ernst’s new ad is a positive spot that pledges she will “stop Washington’s runaway spending” and “support our veterans.”

OR-SEN (MERKLEY): Sen. Jeff Merkley’s (D) new ad highlights his “middle class roots” and calls him a “dad who still struggles to clean the garage” — in which he plays ping-pong with one of his kids to close out the ad.

NRCC: The National Republican Congressional Committee launched ads targeting Reps. Ann Kirkpatrick (D-Ariz.), Brad Schneider (D-Ill.), Ami Bera (D-Calif.), John Barrow (D-Ga.), William Enyart (D-Ill.), Tim Bishop (D-N.Y.) and Nick Rahall (D-W.Va.), as well as two ads aimed at shoring up Rep. Steve Southerland (R-Fla.) and holding an open Iowa House seat.

CA-52 (PETERS): Republican Carl DeMaio calls himself a “proud, gay American” in a new ad pushing back against Democrats’ attacks that he’s a Tea Party candidate.

AZ-2 (BARBER): The conservative YG network released a new ad hitting incumbent Rep. Ron Barber (D-Ariz.) for supporting ObamaCare while praising Republican challenger Martha McSally for wanting to replace President Obama’s signature healthcare plan.

CA-21 (VALADAO): Amanda Renteria (D-Calif.) released a new ad touting the Fresno Bee’s endorsement of her over incumbent, Rep. David Valadao (R-Calif.). The new ad follows Vice President Biden’s Tuesday campaign visit.

GA-12 (BARROW): A new ad from Rep. John Barrow (D-Ga.) trumpets the lawmaker’s work on veteran’s issues.

IL-17 (BUSTOS): Rep. Cheri Bustos (D-Ill.) released a new ad where she pitches her job-creation resume.

WI-1 (RYAN): Rep. Paul Ryan says in his first campaign ad that it’s “time to clean house at the IRS.”

FL-18 (MURPHY): Rep. Patrick Murphy’s new ad features Republican voters and the lawmaker touting his independent voting record.

NY-18 (MALONEY): The Democratic Congressional Campaign Committee hits former Rep. Nan Hayworth with an ad that features clips of Hayworth calling herself a “radical.”

 

POLL POSITION

GA-SEN (OPEN): Republican David Perdue leads Democrat Michelle Nunn 45 percent to 43 percent with libertarian Amanda Swafford at 5 percent, according to a new Public Policy Polling survey.

MN-SEN (FRANKEN): Sen. Al Franken (D) leads Republican Mike McFadden 55 percent to 37 percent a new SurveyUSA/KSTP poll.

LA-5 (MCALLISTER): An independent poll conducted by Cygnal shows Democrat Jamie Mayo leading the field for Rep. Vance McAllister’s (R) seat with 19 percent of likely voters, while McAllister takes 17 percent and Republican Zach Dasher takes 13 percent support.

MI-SEN (OPEN): Rep. Gary Peters (D-Mich.) leads former Michigan Secretary of State Terri Lynn Land (R) 44 percent to 35 percent in a new Detroit News poll and 47 percent to 36 percent in a new poll from GOP firm MRG.

VA-SEN (WARNER): Sen. Mark Warner (D-Va.) leads former Republican National Committee Chairman Ed Gillespie (R) 51 percent to 39 percent in a new poll from Christopher Newport University.

MA-6 (OPEN): A poll conducted by Garin-Hart-Yang for the Democratic House Majority PAC shows Democrat Seth Moulton drawing 43 percent support to Republican Richard Tisei’s 33 percent support, while independent Chris Stockwell takes 11 percent support.

NH-1 (SHEA-PORTER)/NH-2 (KUSTER): The latest WMUR Granite State Poll shows Democratic Rep. Carol Shea-Porter leading GOP challenger Frank Guinta by 3 points and Democratic Rep. Annie Kuster trailing Republican Marilinda Garcia by 4 points.

 

FUNDRAISING FIGURES

NRSC: The National Republican Senatorial Committee raised $15.5 million in September, a one-month record for the group.

MN-SEN (FRANKEN): Sen. Al Franken (D-Minn.) raised $4.2 million in the last quarter and has $2.75 million in the bank.

WV-SEN (OPEN): Rep. Shelley Moore Capito (R) raised more than $1.6 million in the third quarter and has $3.4 million cash on hand, her campaign announced Tuesday.

CO-SEN (UDALL): Colorado Republican Rep. Cory Gardner raised $4.35 million in the third fundraising quarter of the year, his campaign announced Tuesday, and had $3.3 million cash on hand at the close of the quarter.

NC-SEN (HAGAN): Sen. Kay Hagan (D-N.C.) hauled in $4.9 million in the last fundraising quarter.

WV-2 (OPEN): Republican Alex Mooney raised $604,000 in the third quarter for his bid for Rep. Shelley Moore Capito’s (R) seat.

CA-17 (HONDA): Rep. Mike Honda (D) raised $400,000 in the third quarter for his battle with Democratic challenger Ro Khanna.

 

2016 RUMBLINGS

CLINTON: Famously prescient investor Warren Buffett said that he believes former Secretary of State Hillary Clinton will run for president — and that she “is going to win” — at a conference held by Fortune magazine on Tuesday.

O’MALLEY: Just 19 percent of Maryland residents say their governor should run for president, compared to 65 percent who say Democrat Martin O’Malley should not, according to a poll by Goucher College in Maryland. 

HUCKABEE: Former Arkansas Gov. Mike Huckabee (R) will campaign in his home state this week for Republican Senate candidate Tom Cotton, gubernatorial candidate Asa Hutchinson, and 4th Congressional District candidate Bruce Westerman.

SANTORUM: Former Pennsylvania Sen. Rick Santorum (R) is hitting Michigan, Mississippi and Alabama this week to meet with local activists, attend a fundraiser in Mississippi and campaign for GOP House candidate Gary Palmer in Alabama.

 

QUOTE OF THE DAY 

“People with Ebola in the US need to be humanely put down immediately.”

—Todd Kincannon, the former executive director of the South Carolina GOP, on Twitter