According to a memo provided by the Republican National Committee (RNC), registered Republicans have sent in 305 more absentee ballots or early votes than Democrats in iowa. At this point in the election cycle in 2010, the last election with an Iowa Senate seat up for election, the memo says Democrats led by 16,426 ballots.
“The momentum has been building for a long time, but this development means Republicans have crossed a major Democrat firewall that had given them a boost going into Election Day in previous election cycles,” Jeff Kaufmann, the chairman of the Republican Party of Iowa, said in a statement. “Democrats are nowhere near where they need to be, and they are quickly running out of time.”
{mosads}The memo admits that Democrats will most likely regain the advantage, but marks the lead as indicative of shifting tides on the ground. It also shows that the GOP has another small advantage in in-person absentee and satellite voting.
Christina Freundlich, the communications director for the Iowa Democratic Party, said she’s not worried about the “slight lead” and noted that registered Democrats hold a 25,000 advantage in vote-by-mail requests. She also added that part of the rise in GOP voters comes from a larger proportion of regular Election Day voters deciding to turn out earlier.
“We have an incredible advantage in requests and we are seeing that number grow by the day,” she said. “We know that right now, we are focusing on turning out the right people that will lead us to victory on Election Day.”
The RNC’s memo argues that Democrats had more 2010 voters request absentee or early ballots between Sept. 29 and Oct. 20 than in 2014.
The Iowa Senate race is one of the most contentious races in the country. Retiring Sen. Tom Harkin (D) created the vacancy and Democrats are scrambling to hold the seat and stave off the potential of a Republican-controlled Senate. A RealClearPolitics average of recent polling data shows that Ernst is up by 2.5 percentage points.
Both Republicans and Democrats point to their efforts to reach out to new voters, whether they be those who didn’t vote in the last midterm election or those who don’t always vote down party lines.
The RNC memo says that Republicans lead in requests from non-2010 voters by more than 7,500, while Freundlich said that Braley has a 2-to-1 advantage on absentee and early votes from independents.
— This post was updated at 10:48 p.m.