With 2 debates in 12 hours, New Hampshire challenges candidates

MANCHESTER, N.H. — Mitt Romney’s expected win in New Hampshire’s primary has developed into expectations of a double-digit finish while the rest of the candidates are racing for second or third place.

But New Hampshire is known for breeding comebacks and, before voters have their say on Tuesday, the remaining Republican presidential candidates will square off in two debates 12 hours apart.

Romney is polling around 40 percent with Ron Paul in a strong second position and Newt Gingrich, Rick Santorum and Jon Huntsman battling it out for third place.

{mosads}Political observers in the state say Romney has earned his spot in the polls.

“It’s not because he lives next door but because he’s been campaigning here for four years,” said Neil Levesque, the executive director of the New Hampshire Institute of Politics at St. Anselm College. “If you are a voter you’ve probably run into him.”

Fergus Cullen, a former chairman of the New Hampshire Republican Party, agrees.

Romney’s done “a lot of hard work stretching back five years,” Cullen said.

But that hard work could come back to haunt the former Massachusetts governor if he doesn’t have a blow-out win in Tuesday’s primary.

Between all the time and money he’s spent in the state, along with his position in the polls, anything less than a double-digit win could be considered a loss.

As for the other candidates, Santorum has been the man-of-the-hour since his surprise surge — and near win — in the Iowa caucuses. But he’s seen his New Hampshire surge slowly start to taper off. In a Suffolk University tracking poll out Saturday, he was at 9 percent. Friday’s poll had him at 11 percent.

“Rick Santorum’s streak of four straight improving poll days has ended,” said David Paleologos, director of the Suffolk University Political Research Center, in a statement. “He is still in a close battle for the bronze medal with Gingrich and Huntsman with two debates scheduled in the next 24 hours.”

The former senator walked a careful line on Saturday, careful not to set expectations too high, but eager to show his New Hampshire push was for real.

“I am convinced that we’re going to surprise a lot of people here. We started out a little farther behind than I would have liked — 39 points,” Santorum said.

Top Santorum strategist John Brabender portrayed Santorum’s decision to spent invaluable on-the-ground time in New Hampshire despite the odds against him here as symbolic of Santorum’s commitment not to ignore any region of the country. Left unsaid was the absence of Rick Perry — one of Santorum’s prime rivals for the support of conservative Republicans — who is skipping retail politics in New Hampshire for a Hail Mary gambit in South Carolina.

“We do feel that if you can’t at least come here and be willing to compete and talk to voters in every region of the country, then you really shouldn’t be running for president of the United States,” Brabender said. “Not necessarily to win, but to go there and be a presence.”

At a town hall meeting in Hollis, N.H. — Santorum’s third of four events Saturday — Brabender said that Santorum’s unrelenting pace on the campaign trail has allowed them to compete in two states simultaneously. He noted that they haven’t dropped the ball on South Carolina, either, and will have 1,000 gross points worth of television ads hitting Palmetto State airwaves starting Monday.

Meanwhile, it’s Huntsman who’s invested the most time in New Hampshire and anything other than a win, place or show would lead to increased talk about the viability of his campaign.

A third place finish would keep any candidate viable, argued Cullen, if it’s Paul who takes second. “If you’re third place to Ron Paul, you’re still the second real candidate,” he said because Paul is “not taken seriously” by most Republicans.

Levesque said Huntsman could be the surprise candidate of the night.

“He’s probably the person who’s going to exceed expectations,” he said. “He’s worked hard here.”

Huntsman skipped Iowa’s caucuses in favor of campaigning in New Hampshire.

As for his strategy for Saturday night’s debate, he said, “You’ve got to be yourself and speak from the heart.”

His spokesman, Tim Miller, was cautiously optimistic about his candidate’s chances: “Polls are all over the place but I think we’ve moved in the right direction.”

The New Hampshire primary has delivered surprises in the past. In 2008, Hillary Clinton’s unexpected win reinvigorated her campaign. In 1996, Pat Buchanan snatched a win from eventual GOP nominee Bob Dole and Bill Clinton’s second-place finish in 1992 made him the “comeback kid.”

This weekend’s debate could be one of the deciding factors. There are two back-to-back: one Saturday night at 9 pm ET and another Sunday morning. Some of the candidates, such as Romney, had no events scheduled for Saturday afternoon, meaning they are preparing for the debates.

All eyes will be on Romney and Santorum, who will be at podiums next to each other on stage.

Meanwhile, Gingrich is a strong debater and got the endorsement of the New Hampshire Union-Leader, the biggest newspaper in the state. But his campaign has lost momentum, particularly after his fourth-place finish in Iowa.

Perry seems to have given up on the state. A WMUR/UNH poll out Friday showed him with 1 percent, tied for last with Buddy Roemer. Perry is scheduled to participate in both debates but after they finish, he’ll head to South Carolina, where he’ll stay through New Hampshire’s primary on Tuesday.