Perry, others likely out of Fox debate, get their chance in forum

Former Texas Gov. Rick Perry, who is in danger of missing the first Republican debate, kicked off a GOP cattle call of candidates in New Hampshire on Monday vowing to secure the border if he’s elected president.

{mosads}“The American people don’t trust Washington, D.C., to deal with this issue of immigration reform until we secure the border,” Perry said. “And I know something about securing the border.”

Fourteen Republican candidates are participating in C-SPAN’s Voters First Forum in New Hampshire on Monday. The style is different from the debate — one by one, the candidates will take the stage to answer questions from a moderator, rather than all appearing together on-stage at the same time.

C-SPAN had a drawing an hour before the forum to see who would go first, and Perry’s number came up.

“I know how to secure the border,” Perry said. “If you elect me president, the will to secure the border will reside in the Oval Office.”

The C-SPAN forum was announced in mid-July and touted by its media outlet sponsors as a more inclusive alternative to the first Republican debate, which will take place Thursday in Cleveland.

C-SPAN invited all of the 16 Republicans who had announced at the time. Only Donald Trump and former Arkansas Gov. Mike Huckabee did not attend. Former Virginia Gov. Jim Gillmore entered the race too late.

Conversely, the first Fox News debate on Thursday will be capped at 10 participants based on national polling numbers. Fox is also hosting a forum earlier in the day for those who don’t qualify, but that event is viewed by many as a lower-profile consolation prize.

Ironically, Perry may be the first candidate who fails to make the cut for Fox News’s debate on Thursday.

The publishers at the New Hampshire Union Leader, The Post and Courier of South Carolina, and Iowa’s The Gazette say the forum was prompted in part by Fox’s controversial decision to cap the number of candidates.

“Fox says only the ‘top’ 10 candidates, as judged solely by national polling, will be allowed on its stage,” the publishers said in a joint statement. “That may be understandable later, but the first votes are half a year away and there are a lot more than 10 viable candidates.”

“The early primary process gives all candidates a chance to be heard,” they continued. “If networks and national polls are to decide this now, the early state process is in jeopardy and only big money and big names will compete.”

Still, the C-SPAN event is not sanctioned by the Republican National Committee and is just one of more than a dozen GOP cattle calls to take place so far this year.

Thursday’s debate is the main event, and there’s intense speculation around who will make the final cut.

Right now, it appears that Ohio Gov. John Kasich and New Jersey Gov. Chris Christie could nab the final two spots on stage, while former Texas Gov. Rick Perry, businesswoman Carly Fiorina, former Sen. Rick Santorum (Pa.), who won the 2012 Iowa caucuses, and Louisiana Gov. Bobby Jindal, among others, will be shut out.

Pollsters at Monmouth University and Quinnipiac University, both of whose surveys could be used by Fox for the final cut, said the news outlet had not contacted them about the potential to use their polls or to inquire about their methodologies.

Fox News is dealing with the the logistics of the huge field of Republican candidates but has been criticized by candidates, pollsters and pundits for using early national polls to determine who gets on stage for the first prime-time debate.

This week, the Marist Institute for Public Opinion announced it was suspending its latest survey to ensure that their polling was not one of the five polls Fox will use to determine the contestants.

Marist argued that too many candidates are separated by too small of margins and that national polling is not precise enough to determine the true standing of candidates at this point. The outlet also said it turned independent analysts into participants in the debate process.

According to a Monmouth University survey released Monday, Republican voters aren’t happy with the criteria in determining who gets on stage for the first debate.

Forty-five percent said there should be back-to-back debates with the field split randomly between the two, while 29 percent said all of the candidates should be on stage at the same time. Only 23 percent said the debate should be limited to a top 10 based on national polling numbers.

 According to the Monmouth analysis, only Trump, Bush, Walker, Cruz and Huckabee are in a defined top tier of candidates, while the candidates in sixth place to 15th place are within the margin of error of the top 10.



“I suppose Fox hoped that a top tier would emerge by the time the first debate rolled around,” said Murray. “But based on current polling, there’s no good rationale for arbitrarily selecting a top 10.”