2012 madness: Obama sizes up field

President Obama filled out his NCAA brackets on Tuesday, but the White House is more focused on sizing up the Republican field of contenders for 2012. 

The White House believes Obama is in good shape heading into his reelection season, but that doesn’t mean it’s not scouting its possible opponents, from the 16th-seeded possible Cinderella stories to the consensus No. 1 seeds. 

Low seeds, long shots and likely early exits: Former Sen. Rick Santorum, Rep. Michele Bachmann

As far as the White House is concerned, these long-shot candidates all have only one move: They go to their right. 

{mosads}As such, Bachmann or Santorum would be a good opponent for Obama, who would relish the thought of facing either candidate. 

It’s hardly inconceivable that Santorum, the former Pennsylvania senator, could win an early-round game. Socially conservative candidates have an advantage in the Iowa caucuses; Former Gov. Mike Huckabee of Arkansas was able to beat the top seeds there in 2008. 

Early game tape of Bachmann (Minn.), however, shows a fatally flawed candidate, from the White House’s perspective. Bachmann’s gaffe of confusing Massachusetts for New Hampshire is only her most recent misstatement. If this were a basketball tournament, Democrats would see Bachmann as a National Invitation Tournament team.

Mid-majors; 8 or 9 seeds: Newt Gingrich, Tim Pawlenty and Huckabee

Team Obama has seen Huckabee play, and they doubt he can go deep into the tournament. 

The former Arkansas governor can cause a lot of damage in the first and second rounds of Iowa and South Carolina, but he doesn’t appear to have solved the depth issues that sent him home early from the last tournament.

Pawlenty has a nice mid-range game, but he lacks the toughness to go far. Minnesota Nice is a weakness in this tournament, and Pawlenty does not seem to have the elbows necessary to keep other teams honest. 

At the same time, Pawlenty is a team nobody is familiar with, so his upside is tremendous.

Gingrich can shoot, he can take the ball to the rack and he knows more about the game than the rest of the field combined.

But the sharpshooter of the mid-’90s was called for traveling when he sort-of kind-of started his tournament run by almost announcing a presidential run. GOP candidates are already shredding Gingrich by using his deep bench of personal baggage against him, and the White House thinks he’ll tire before reaching the final rounds.

Top seeds: Mitt Romney, Jon Huntsman, Haley Barbour and Mitch Daniels 

Romney gets the top overall seed because he has been to the Big Dance before, and experience goes a long way in this tournament.

But Romney is not a juggernaut like UCLA or Kentucky. Coach Obama sees weaknesses, and he has delighted in repeatedly applauding Romney’s reform of healthcare in Massachusetts, which is similar to the national law championed by the president.

Huntsman, the new version of Romney, has many of the same strengths and weaknesses. He has proven he can go to his left by working with Obama and embracing climate change and civil unions. In basketball, that kind of crossover can kill opponents. 

In a GOP primary, though, it’s a torn ACL. Obama has been happy to talk publicly about how Huntsman’s work with the administration will be a hindrance in the primary season. 

Barbour has been getting in shape for this run for the better part of the year, and he looked well-positioned to go deep into the tournament. But in recent weeks, the hefty former lobbyist and Republican National Committee (RNC) chairman has stumbled, making questionable comments about race that have many calling foul.

Barbour has the connections and style to make a deep tournament run, but he will need to find the discipline that is a hallmark of all championship teams. 

On Daniels, let’s go to the tape of Obama at last weekend’s Gridiron dinner:

“I know some people discount Mitch because he’s not — as they say in the NBA — long enough. But they don’t realize how scrappy he is. I watched him during dinner. He tore into that fillet like it was a public employee. … I don’t have a joke here. I just want to point it out.”

Did not make the tournament: Sarah Palin

Don’t blame the committee.

Palin was part of the 2008 McCain team that was badly beaten in the championship game, and Team Obama openly salivates at the idea of a rematch.

Her trip to the finals alone was enough for most to put the former Alaska governor in the preseason Top Five.

But like so many potentially great teams before her, Palin has struggled throughout the season, failing to develop or grow an all-around game. And on every missed shot, she blames the refs (the media). 

The White House no longer thinks it’ll get the chance to take her on in the championship game.

While Palin continues to enjoy immense support from conservative voters, she has no floor game and has shown little willingness to learn to shoot from different spots on the floor. Coaches implored her to spend the offseason in the gym (studying policy, traveling abroad), but she shows little effort in practice, and that will almost always carry over into games. 

Like any winning team, Obama is taking all of these candidates seriously, and the road to the finals is still a long way off.

Let the madness begin.

Youngman is the White House correspondent for The Hill. Find his column, Obama’s Bid for Reelection, on digital-release.thehill.com.