Outcome of gun-control debate holds implications for 2014 races

The fight for expanded gun control measures continues to
heat up on Capitol Hill, but the legislative outcome will have effects on far
more than gun owners and manufacturers.

{mosads}Going into the 2014 midterms, candidates’ stances on gun control
will receive scrutiny from both sides of the spectrum — providing ample
fodder for challengers in a number of hotly-contested races nationwide.

Democrats running in red states, in particular, will have to
walk a fine line on gun control. But it’s in primaries where candidates’
positions could really hurt them in 2014.

NEW JERSEY

New Jersey isn’t a state in which the gun control push will
be controversial among voters — a recent Quinnipiac University poll showed
nearly 60 percent want the state to have stricter gun control laws — but the
only announced candidate for Sen. Frank Lautenberg’s (D-N.J.) seat, Newark
Mayor Cory Booker, could face attacks from primary opponents on his record on
guns.

Booker questioned the efficacy of an assault weapons ban
backed by most liberal Democrats, and suggested that the major problem with gun
control had more to do with illegal weapons sales than control of legal guns. As
the Newark Star-Ledger reported, he was absent from a number of recent events
on gun control.

That last story sparked an angry response via Twitter from
Booker, who called the story “one of the worst mischaracterizations of my
views.”

But Booker’s quick, forceful response indicates he wants to
tamp down any indication that there’s daylight between his positions and those
of the greater Democratic Party on gun control early on.

In what will likely be a fierce Democratic primary for the
seat — Lautenberg hasn’t yet decided to retire, and Rep. Frank Pallone (D-N.J.)
is expected to jump in, among others — Booker’s stance on gun control could
give him a headache from opponents hoping to frame him as not liberal enough for
the Democratic nomination.

ILLINOIS-2:

At least one candidate in the wide range of contenders vying
for former Rep. Jesse Jackson Jr.’s (D) seat — Debbie Halvorson — has
already come under fire for her position on gun control, and opponents are
working to make it an issue in the upcoming Democratic primary.

Halvorson was the subject of a commercial, the only
television ad in the race so far, from Michael Bloomberg-backed pro-gun-control
PAC Independence USA.

The commercial attacked her for her previous support from the
NRA, including an endorsement and an “A” rating from the gun lobby group.

Halvorson, a former House member, has high name recognition
in the district and holds a slight lead over her contenders in a recent poll.

Though the district is reliably Democratic, opponents have
begun to see the gun issue as a way to drive up her negatives in advance of the
late-February primary.

Former state Rep. Robin Kelly, for instance, sought to
bolster support among Democratic primary voters by touting her own “F” rating
from the NRA in a recent release announcing an endorsement.

“While some of my opponents have A ratings with the
NRA, I couldn’t be more proud of my F rating and it’s that record that I will
take to Congress to fight for the families across Chicago and the Southland,”
Kelly wrote.

KENTUCKY

Senate Majority Leader Mitch McConnell (R-Ky.) is a friend
of the NRA. He received an “A” endorsement from the group and has appeared at
NRA events. McConnell touted his efforts to block President Obama’s expanded
gun control measures in a recent fundraising email, and at one point even
worked to kill an amendment proposed by his fellow Kentucky Sen. Rand Paul (R )
that the NRA opposed.

But if expanded gun control measures do make it through
Congress, any potential primary challenger would attempt to tie those
regulations around McConnell’s neck, arguing that he hasn’t done enough
to block them.

And there’s evidence that a Democratic opponent could use
McConnell’s opposition against him: A recent Courier-Journal Bluegrass poll
indicated a full two-thirds of Kentuckians surveyed support expanded background
checks on gun buyers, and a majority supported both gun registration and laws
limiting access to guns.

WEST VIRGINIA

Sen. Joe Manchin (D-W.Va.) infamously shot his rifle at a
copy of a cap-and-trade bill that was being pushed by Democrats — but was reviled
by West Virginians — in a campaign ad. The ad doubled as a show of solidarity
with his pro-gun constituents. Sen. Jay Rockefeller’s (D-W.Va.) pro-gun-control
stance was considered one of the bigger of the many hurdles would have faced in
his reelection bid, before he decided to retire.

But with anti-gun-control Rep. Shelly Moore Capito (R-W.Va.)
the current frontrunner for the GOP nomination for the seat, gun control could
become an issue in the upcoming Democratic primary, and in the general election.

Rep. Nick Rahall (D-W.Va.), who has indicated he’s open to a
Senate run, is backed by the NRA and opposes an assault weapons ban, though he
has expressed support for expanded background checks. West Virginia secretary
of State Natalie Tennant also has a strong rating on gun control.

But former Sen. Carte Goodwin, a leading Democratic
contender, has not yet gone on the record on gun control. Any vote Rahall takes on expanded gun control measures could be fodder for his primary opponents, especially those not in legislative office. And even a vote against them might not insulate him from opponents’ attempts to tie him to President Obama.