Early-voting numbers surge past 2012 levels

The number of early voters this year has already surpassed the total number of early votes in the 2012 election, according to data compiled by the United States Elections Project.

{mosads}At least 34 million people have already cast a ballot so far in this election cycle, the project found. In 2012, about 32.3 million votes were cast ahead of Election Day.

Because data is collected through local election boards, the project’s 2016 numbers are limited, providing only a narrow picture of the nation’s early-voting numbers.

Though overall early voting has been surging, some battleground states have seen a decline in early black turnout, a bad omen for Democrats given their traditional edge in African-American communities.

In North Carolina, black turnout is down so far this cycle. The state’s GOP-led legislature has imposed a number of restrictions on early voting.

And black voters’ share of early voters has declined in Florida since 2012, despite an increased early voting period.

But Michael McDonald, an early-voting expert who runs the Elections Project, said other aspects of the early-voting numbers show some promise for Democratic presidential nominee Hillary Clinton. 

For instance, North Carolina and Florida have seen increases in early-voting turnout from women, Hispanics or other minority groups that favor Clinton.

“The African-American turnout is problematic for the Democrats, but it may not be a death knell for them because there’s other ways in which they can make that back up through other changes to the electorate,” McDonald said, predicting close races in both states.

McDonald also sees Nevada and Colorado “solidifying in Clinton’s favor” based on their early-voting numbers.

Republican nominee Donald Trump, on the other hand, has a strong chance of taking Iowa and Ohio, two states that President Obama won in 2012, based on the counties that are turning out to vote early in those states.

According to McDonald, many states have either already set records for early voting or exceeded their 2012 turnout, and he predicts that more states will break records as more data become available.

One reason for this, McDonald said, is voters have become so familiar with Clinton and Trump because of the contentious campaign that they feel ready to make a decision earlier than in past cycles.

He also predicted that FBI Director James Comey’s letter to Congress about new emails possibly related to its bureau’s investigation into Clinton’s possible mishandling of classified material will prove to be a “non-event” because it didn’t add any new information.

“People have been very attentive to this election,” McDonald said. “They know the candidates and they have weighed those candidates, and they are now making their choice. It’s becoming evident that people are voting at higher rates early because they have that large amount of information and they’re confident making their choice.”