GOP predicts major state legislature gains this fall will help with redistricting

Republicans are forecasting
widespread gains for the party this fall in legislative chambers across the
country, which could give the party control over the redistricting process in a
number of key states. 

Former Republican National Committee Chairman and
current head of the Republican State Leadership Committee Ed Gillespie on
Thursday predicted a minimum of 10 legislative chamber pick-ups for Republicans
in 2010. 

“This is the first time a
wave election year is taking place in a year that ends in a zero,” Gillespie
said at a breakfast hosted by the Christian Science Monitor. 

“We plan on holding all of
our chambers,” he said. “There are four states where we are very confident we’re
going to win chambers — Indiana, Ohio, Wisconsin and Pennsylvania.”

Gillespie and RSLC Vice Chairman
Tom Reynolds singled out another eight states where chambers are in play this
fall: Alabama, Colorado, Iowa, Michigan, New York, North Carolina, Oregon and
Wisconsin. 

If the party could win
control of legislatures in at least half of those states, along with winning
the other four, it would mark the largest number of Republican chamber pick-ups
since 1994.   

Along with the 37
gubernatorial races on the table in 2010, states legislatures are a major
battleground in the fight over redistricting. In most states, legislative and
gubernatorial races will end up determining which party has the upper hand when
it comes to re-drawing district maps. 

The addition of Gillespie and
Reynolds to the RSLC back in January marked a heightened sense of attention on
2010’s state races. The group is predicting it will raise upwards of $30
million to aid state legislative races this year.

Its Democratic counterpart,
the Democratic Legislative Campaign Committee, is zeroing in on Texas,
Pennsylvania, Ohio and Michigan, and plans to spend at least $20 million
helping Democrats on the state level this year. 

If Democrats can win control
of either the governorship in Texas or one chamber of the state legislature, it
will at least give the party a seat at the redistricting table in a state that’s
predicted to gain as many as four new House seats in the upcoming round of
redistricting.

Last time around, Republicans
held complete control of the redistricting process in Texas, which became
ground zero for the partisan and legal battles.

Democrats worry what
widespread Republican gains on the state level in 2010 will mean for the
redistricting process. At a convention of liberal bloggers and activists last
week, Democratic Governors Association Chairman Nathan Daschle warned the GOP
could “gerrymander 30 House seats” if they score wins in a number of crucial
governor’s races. 

Asked whether the Democrats’
newly-unveiled summer strategy to link the GOP to the Tea Party might be a
problem for candidates, Gillespie dismissed it as a sign of Democratic
desperation. 

“I know where they are,” Gillespie said. “I’ve been where they
are. It’s really a sign of desperation. They usually wait until October to tell
voters Republicans are going to eliminate Social Security and Medicare.”

Based on early census figures, Polidata predicted Arizona, Florida, Georgia, Nevada, South Carolina, Texas, Utah and Washington would gain seats while Illinois, Iowa, Louisiana, Massachusetts, Michigan, Minnesota, New Jersey, New York, Ohio and Pennsylvania.

— This post was updated at 12:49 p.m.