Poll: Republican up big in Arkansas Senate race

Rep. Tom Cotton (R-Ark.) is well on his way to becoming Sen. Tom Cotton (R-Ark.), if a new poll from Arkansas Talk Business and Hendrix College is accurate.

{mosads}Cotton leads Sen. Mark Pryor (D-Ark.) by 49 percent to 41 percent in the poll, released Monday evening, the largest lead he’s had in any public polling.

The congressman has grown his lead from two to eight points since the last time Talk Business polled the state in July, and Pryor has trailed by a narrower margin in most recent nonpartisan polling of the state, and while there has not been a lot of live-caller numbers, Republicans have all but declared victory in Arkansas. Pryor hasn’t helped himself in recent weeks either, struggling on the campaign trail and tripping up in recent debates against Cotton.

Democratic pollsters have found a much tighter race in the state, and are likely to question the poll’s methodology. Though cell phone users are included they’re only 16 percent of the sample, lower than most live-caller surveys, and the poll is of “frequent voters,” which might be too tight a screen that eliminates some Democrats. Pryor allies say the ground game will give him a boost. But no ground game can overcome an eight-point gap. So, if the poll is even close to accurate Pryor should be worried.

This survey of 2,075 frequent voters was conducted by Talk Business & Politics and Hendrix College from Oct. 15-16, 2014 and has a margin of error of plus or minus 2.2 percent using automated survey technology.