Overnight campaign: Winning? Losing? There’s a poll for that.

Whatever outcome you want to see on Nov. 4, there’s a poll for that.

Sen. Mitch McConnell (R-Ky.) up big over Democrat Alison Lundergan Grimes? A poll out Thursday from Crossroads GPS gives him a 7-point lead.

Grimes tied with McConnell? Her own pollster suggested that’s what their internals show.

Depending on which of the three polls released Thursday you’re reading, Sen. Jeanne Shaheen (D-N.H.) could be in a dead heat with Republican Scott Brown, down 4 points or up 8 points.

{mosads}Sen. Mark Udall (D-Colo.) is anywhere from down 8 points to up 1 point to tied with Rep. Cory Gardner (R), according to the half-dozen polls released over the past week.

The wild swings in public polling underscore both how unpredictable this midterm cycle is and how unreliable most polls are. And the pollsters emphasize that even the best, most careful prognosticators are in for some surprises on Election Night.

 

SENATE SHOWDOWN

GA-SEN (OPEN): Georgia’s tight Senate race could be headed for the courtroom after voters head to the ballot box following a judge’s decision this week that will likely increase the number of provisional ballot cast and could create Election Day chaos.

Dollar General recalled Chinese-made goods because of lead paint during the time David Perdue (R) was CEO.

Former charity executive Michelle Nunn (D) stumped with former Atlanta Hawks star Dikembe Motumbu on Thursday and will campaign with former President Clinton on Friday.

KS-SEN (ROBERTS): Sen. Pat Roberts’s (R-Kan.) former primary challenger, radiologist Milton Wolf (R), endorsed him for reelection. He called for skeptics to put aside the nasty primary fight because Kansas could be the deciding state for control of the Senate, and pledged to “hold [Roberts’s] feet to the fire” if the senator is reelected.

IA-SEN (OPEN): Joni Ernst on Thursday responded to Hillary Clinton’s criticism of the Iowa Republican Senate nominee for canceling a newspaper editorial board interview, saying it is less important to meet with a “room full of editors.”

And a day earlier, Sen. John McCain (R-Ariz.) said he wants Ernst to serve on the powerful Senate Armed Services Committee, citing her service in the Army National Guard.

KY-SEN (MCCONNELL): The Kentucky Republican Party is reminding voters of Democratic Senate candidate Alison Lundergan Grimes’s ties to President Obama with a holographic mailer that shows her turning into him. 

NC-SEN (HAGAN): Former President Clinton is heading back to North Carolina to rally with Sen. Kay Hagan, as the vulnerable Democratic incumbent looks to hang on to her seat. 

MT-SEN (OPEN): The National Republican Senatorial Committee is the source of the leak that brought down Sen. John Walsh (D-Mont.), its director said at an event on Thursday.

DEMOCRATS: The man who oversaw the field operation for President Obama’s 2012 reelection campaign says Democrats have no better than a 50-50 shot at retaining the Senate when voters head to the polls next month. 

Democrats have lost their grip on Hispanic voters heading into Election Day — and could lose the Senate because of them.

 

BATTLE FOR THE HOUSE

AZ-9 (SINEMA): The Arizona Democratic Party is sending mailers offering information on libertarian Powell Gammill, a move Republican Wendy Rogers’s campaign says is intended to siphon votes away from her and help boost Rep. Kyrsten Sinema (D-Ariz.).

MI-6 (UPTON): Supporters and opponents of House Energy and Commerce Committee Chairman Fred Upton (R-Mich.) are spending big in the final days before the election, turning a once-ignored race into a possible upset.

NY-11 (GRIMM): The Staten Island Advance is begrudgingly endorsing embattled Rep. Michael Grimm (R-N.Y.) for reelection, offering him faint praise in his battle with former New York City Councilman Domenic Recchia (D). 

CA-17 (HONDA): First lady Michelle Obama is going to bat for Rep. Mike Honda (D-Calif.) in his race against former Commerce Department official Ro Khanna — a fellow Democrat — in one of the most expensive House races in the country. 

MN-7 (PETERSON): Twelve-term Rep. Collin Peterson (D-Minn.) is one of the few remaining centrist Blue Dogs in Congress. Republicans are hoping to change that, and believe legally blind state Sen. Torrey Westrom (R) is the candidate to pull off the upset.

CA-52 (PETERS): California Gov. Jerry Brown (D) endorsed Rep. Scott Peters (D-Calif.) on Thursday.

CO-6 (COFFMAN): Rep. Mike Coffman (R-Colo.) and Democrat Andrew Romanoff (D) will square off in a Spanish-language debate tonight.

 

AD WATCH

KS-SEN (ROBERTS): A new radio ad bashing Kansas independent Greg Orman as a pawn of the Democrats re-imagines the race through the lens of Netflix’s “House of Cards.”

Sen. Pat Roberts (R-Kan.) launched two new ads, one featuring Kansas State University coach Bill Snyder touting the senator as a “good friend” and an “honest individual” and another radio ad highlighting the potential for Roberts to take over the Agriculture Committee chairmanship if the GOP takes back the Senate.

AK-SEN (BEGICH): Former Alaska Department of Natural Resources Commissioner Dan Sullivan (R) promises to “stand up to Barack Obama and federal overreach” in his closing ad.

GA-SEN (OPEN): Former charity executive Michelle Nunn (D) is closing out the campaign with a positive spot focused on “working together” across the aisle.

Businessman David Perdue (R) ties Nunn to Obama in his latest spot.

AR-SEN (PRYOR): Rep. Tom Cotton (R-Ark.) touts his military background and says “both parties put off hard decisions” in a late ad.

RNC: The Republican National Committee has a new video putting a spin on a DirecTV commercial to argue against ObamaCare. 

NV-4 (HORSFORD): President Obama endorses Rep. Steven Horsford (D-Nev.) in a new radio ad from Horsford’s campaign.

GA-12 (BARROW): The American Future Fund calls Rep. John Barrow (D-Ga.) an “Obama-Pelosi lapdog” in a new spot.

 

POLL POSITION

KY-SEN (MCCONNELL): Kentucky Democratic Senate candidate Alison Lundergan Grimes’s pollster suggested Thursday his candidate is tied with Sen. Mitch McConnell (R-Ky.) in her internal polls. 

CO-SEN (UDALL): The Denver Post’s final poll of the cycle shows Republican Cory Gardner leading Sen. Mark Udall 46 percent to 44 percent. 

Another poll, conducted by Democratic firm Public Policy Polling for pro-Udall League of Conservation Voters, shows the two both tied at 48 percent support.

NH-SEN (SHAHEEN): A poll from the GOP-leaning American Research Group shows Sen. Jeanne Shaheen (D-N.H.) and Republican Scott Brown tied, each taking 49 percent support.

A poll from GOP firm Vox Populi gives Brown a slight lead, taking 49 percent to Shaheen’s 45 percent among likely voters.

And a WMUR Granite State Poll gives Shaheen a lead, taking 50 percent support to Brown’s 42 percent support.

NC-SEN (HAGAN): Sen. Kay Hagan (D-N.C.) leads state Speaker Thom Tillis in a new Elon University poll by a margin of 45 percent to 41 percent. 

She’s up 47 percent to 46 percent in a League of Conservation Voters poll conducted by Democratic firm Public Policy Polling, but Tillis leads 48 percent to 43 percent in a new poll from GOP firm Vox Populi.

AK-SEN (PRYOR): Rep. Tom Cotton (R-Ark.) leads Sen. Mark Pryor (D-Ark.) 49 percent to 36 percent in a poll from University of Arkansas, Fayetteville.

CA-31 (OPEN): Redlands Mayor Pete Aguilar (D) leads Republican Paul Chabot 47 percent to 42 percent in a poll conducted by Public Policy Polling for the League of Conservation Voters.

LA-5 (MCALLISTER): Physician Ralph Abraham (R) takes 25 percent support in the latest independentsurvey of the race, while Monroe Mayor Jamie Mayo (D) draws 18 percent and Rep. Vance McAllister (R-La.) takes 16 percent support.

NJ-5 (GARRETT): Rep. Scott Garrett (R) takes 53 percent support to Democrat Roy Cho’s 42 percent in the latest Monmouth University poll.

 

2016 RUMBLINGS 

BUSH/CLINTON: Former Florida Gov. Jeb Bush (R) took a swipe at former Secretary of State Hillary Clinton’s (D) recent comments, paraphrasing them as “don’t let them tell you that businesses create jobs.” 

“The problem in America these days is that not enough jobs are being created. They are created by businesses,” Bush fired back in a Colorado campaign stop.

RYAN: Rep. Paul Ryan (R-Wis.) indicated in an interview published Thursday that he is open to a presidential run, saying he does not see himself as a House “lifer.” 

 

QUOTE OF THE DAY 

“Remember Domino’s Pizza? They admitted, ‘Hey, our pizza crust sucks.’ The Republican Party brand sucks and so people don’t want to be a Republican and for 80 years, African-Americans have had nothing to do with Republicans.” — Sen. Rand Paul (R-Ky.) 

Tags Barack Obama Cory Gardner Hillary Clinton Jeanne Shaheen John Barrow John McCain Kay Hagan Mark Pryor Mark Udall Michelle Obama Mitch McConnell Pat Roberts Paul Ryan Rand Paul Scott Garrett Tom Cotton

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