Iowa Republicans expecting high voter turnout for tightly contested caucus

A down-to-the-wire campaign with no clear front-runner has Iowa Republicans predicting a record turnout in Tuesday’s caucus.

Craig Robinson, former political director for the Iowa Republican Party, said the attention lavished on the race — and no clear idea of who might emerge victorious — should drive voter turnout.

{mosads}“All Fall, I thought turnout would be similar to the 2008 caucus, but I think all the attention the race has received and how deep the field is this year means turnout will be higher,” Robinson wrote in the Iowa Republican. “A field that includes Bachmann, Gingrich, Paul, Perry, Romney, and Santorum will turn out more votes that the field that included Giuliani, Huckabee, Hunter, McCain, Romney, and Thompson. There are more serious campaigns operating in Iowa than there was in 2008.”

Robinson predicted that nearly 127,000 voters would turn out, up from slightly more than 119,000 votes cast in 2008.

Iowa Secretary of State Matt Schultz (R) similarly predicted a 120,000-130,000 turnout.

Iowa Republican Party Chairman Matt Strawn echoed those sentiments, arguing that superior ground organizations by the candidates should propel larger turnout.

“I’ve said all along I expect a very strong turnout,” Strawn said Monday in an interview with The Hill.

“I get the sense that there are going to be a lot of Iowans [voting] at about 7:30 p.m. [Tuesday] night,” he added later at a Romney campaign event in Des Moines. “It is unusual, and that emphasizes the importance of organization, because it’s the organized campaign that’s going to have somebody in each precinct that’s probably a local leader making that close.”

County-level Republican leaders are even more optimistic about turnout. In Warren County — just south of Des Moines and among the most densely populated in the state — Republicans printed enough ballots to account for a 40 percent increase in attendance over 2008 levels.

“We’re going to set records, I’m sure,” Pottawattamie County Republican Chairman Jeff Jorensen told CNN. 

Jorensen also told the network that he expected that a number of Democrats and independent voters would switch affiliations to be able to vote in the GOP caucus. In Iowa, voters can change their registration on Election Day, allowing them to vote in either party’s caucus. But in 2008, a competitive Democratic caucus between Barack Obama and Hillary Clinton kept most voters aligned with their own parties.

Republicans looking for greater numbers should also get a boost from Mother Nature: Forecasts are calling for relatively high temperatures throughout the state, with little chance of rain or snow.

Iowa Gov. Terry Branstad (R) said Sunday that the size and shape of the turnout should make a huge difference in the tightly compacted Republican race.

“I think it’s a wide-open race. It all depends upon who turns out, but I think we’re going to have a good turnout,” Branstad said on Fox News.

Generally, low turnout numbers are expected to be a boon for Ron Paul and Rick Santorum, candidates who are generally seen to have passionate but limited support. Strong turnout by their core constituencies, coupled with a weak showing by centrist Republicans more likely to favor Mitt Romney, could propel one of those candidates to an early win.

“Rick Santorum was in it the old-fashioned way, [went] to all 99 counties, worked hard, spent a lot of time in the state, built a good organization. He’s coming on strong,” Branstad said.

Conversely, if Romney is able to use his established campaign operation to bring in centrist voters, he could earn an early victory that would provide momentum through the remainder of the primary season.

Other candidates such as Rick Perry and Newt Gingrich have brought in supporters from other states to help go door-to-door and bring voters to caucus sites.

Strawn said Sunday that that organization would play a key role in the volatile race, noting that voters have still not coalesced around any candidate. A Des Moines Register poll released over the weekend showed that more than half of voters — 51 percent — said there was some chance that they could be persuaded once in the caucus to switch their votes to a candidate other than their initial preference. 

“You always hear the mantra — organization, organization, organization,” Strawn said on NBC.