The chief of the House Republican campaign arm is pushing back on the idea that the Supreme Court decision overturning Roe v. Wade has given Democrats a boost, even as he warns colleagues that a GOP majority after the midterm elections is not a “done deal.” Rep. Tom Emmer (R-Minn.), the chairman of the National Republican Congressional Committee (NRCC), in a Tuesday interview with The Hill expressed confidence the election will end with a GOP majority — though he refused to offer predictions on how big it might be.
“We have the candidates. We have the message. I will let the voters tell us how many,” Emmer said.
Emmer recognized some Republicans have adjusted expectations about a GOP wave but downplayed worries about election handicappers like the nonpartisan Cook Political Report shifting seats in favor of Democrats. Cook shifted five races away from the GOP last week.
“Anybody who’s been doing this long enough knows that what you see 12 months ago is not necessarily what you see as you come out of Labor Day,” Emmer said.
Operatives on the Democratic side have also said recent special election wins in Alaska and New York are signs that the environment is better than previously thought.
But Emmer said that’s “wishful thinking” on the part of the House majority.
“Special elections are rarely indicative of what happens in November, and I’m confident we’re going to win both those seats,” he said of the two races lost in recent weeks by the GOP.
The election, he said, comes down to one word: security.
“It’s economic security. I mean, you’ve got families all across this country right now who are making difficult decisions about whether they buy groceries for the family, for their kids, or whether they fill the gas tank,” Emmer said. “And then you’ve got personal security … Democrats’ failed policies, defund the police nonsense, cashless bail, has made our major cities a war zone.”
He also suggested a significant shift because of the abortion decision is a kind of fool’s gold for Democrats.
“I would really push back,” said Emmer, who added that he was looking forward to seeing Democratic candidates defend their votes to make abortion legal.
He said the bill passed by Democrats in the House went too far.
“There are only two countries on the face of the planet that are that onerous with their abortion laws, and that’s China and North Korea,” he said, speaking about the House bill. “Again, I hope they center their elections on that one issue.”
Emmer praised the GOP’s slate of candidates, saying that the NRCC has broken records on minority, female and veteran recruits. His confidence extends to candidates who were at the U.S. Capitol on Jan. 6, 2021, like J.R. Majewski in Ohio and Sandy Smith in North Carolina, even as Democrats argue they are extremists.
“I firmly trust every one of those candidates that has made it through the initial process to make their case, to be able to prosecute their case, why they are the best voice,” Emmer said when asked about Smith and Majewski.
As former President Trump stays in the headlines after the FBI seized classified documents from Mar-a-Lago, Emmer said that GOP candidates will focus on the issues important to their districts. He had no negative words to say about Trump.
“Donald Trump has been a great ally of ours this entire cycle,” Emmer said.
“When it comes to the Trump issue, I think most people recognize, even people who may not have been favorable towards the former administration, that the FBI has been after this guy from day one before he even became president,” Emmer said, arguing that the Mar-a-Lago raid “is generally making people more upset with their government.”