Poll shows Sen. Lincoln in serious reelection trouble

It might be time to start looking at Arkansas as a marquee Senate state in 2010.

According to a new survey from Democratic-leaning firm Public Policy Polling, Sen. Blanche Lincoln’s (D-Ark.) net approval rating has dropped by double digits in the last five months, to below 40 percent approval, and she is virtually tied with three Republicans – all of whom have favorability numbers in the single digits.

The state is shaping up similar to Nevada, where a series of unknown Republicans are already polling competitive with – or leading – Senate Majority Leader Harry Reid (D-Nev.).

The different between the two is that Reid has long been unpopular in his home state, while Lincoln still had a net positive approval rating in March (45 percent positive/40 percent negative, according to PPP).

But that was five months ago. Thanks to Democratic initiatives and the very conservative nature of the state, Lincoln’s approval is now 36 percent positive and 44 percent negative.

She polls at 40 percent in three potential general election matchups, trailing state Sen. Gilbert Baker and businessman Curtis Coleman by 2 percent and 1 percent, respectively, and leading attorney and Iraq/Afghanistan veteran Tom Cotton by 1 percent.

In other words, Republicans might not need a big-name candidate. And that’s good for them, because they’re not getting one.

The most interesting part of the poll might be the fact that Lincoln is viewed favorably by just 62 percent of Democrats. Basically, conservative Democrats who could hold their nose before are now getting a taste of the more liberal element of the party’s leadership, and they don’t like it.

Lincoln’s numbers track closely with Obama’s, and something tells me his fate could be hers.