WH report: swine flu unlikely to rival 1918 pandemic, but poses serious health threat

The current H1N1 “swine flu” epidemic is unlikely to reach pandemic proportions last seen during the 1918-19 global influenza strike, a White House report concluded Monday.

A report by the President’s Council of Advisors on Science and Technology said that while the swine flu isn’t as virulent as the flu of the early 20th century, the virus “poses a serious health threat to the United States,” and could result in the infection of up to 30 to 50 percent of the U.S. population.

The council’s report anticipates an uptick in swine flu infections this fall, and predicts between 30,000 and 90,000 deaths from the flu, concentrated amongst children and young adults.

“The fall resurgence may well occur as early as September, with the beginning of the school term,
and the peak infection may occur in mid-October,” the report’s executive summary said.

The council urged the Obama administration to bolster coordination between agencies to respond to a number of potential health scenarios. Among the key variables to monitor would be surveillance of flu cases, the government’s response to an outbreak, and the barriers to the spread of the disease.

“The Department of Health and Human Services (HHS), including the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention, National Institutes of Health, and Food and Drug Administration, has already made some important progress on the recommendations found in the PCAST subcommittee report and we plan to adopt others to ensure we are doing everything we can to keep Americans healthy and safe,” said HHS Secretary Kathleen Sebelius.

“HIN1 influenza has the potential to affect virtually every aspect of our lives, from our economy and national security to our education system,” said Homeland Security Secretary Janet Napolitano. “It may not be possible to stop influenza, but we can reduce the number of people who become severely ill by preparing well and acting effectively.”