Importance of the counterterrorism dimension in the US-India relationship

Indian Prime Minister Modi’s visit to the U.S. this week comes at an important juncture for US-India relations. It is quite timely to examine the counterterrorism dimension of the relationship.

Ayman Al-Zawahiri’s recent call for the establishment of an Al-Qaeda branch in South Asia may factor into the bilateral discussion that Modi has with President Obama. A close look at the terrorist threats to India is illustrative in this regard.

{mosads}First, Al-Qaeda has always enjoyed South Asia as a base of operations before, all through, and since September 11, 2001.  Al-Zawahiri’s call only gives a formal label to Al-Qaeda’s South Asian operations that were hitherto run by its South Asian affiliates like the Haqqaani Network, the Afghan Taliban, Lashkar-e-Taiba, Jaish-e-Mohammad, HuJi and the TTP, all of whom have attacked U.S. and Indian nationals alike in the past.

Second, the imminent exit of the U.S.-led NATO troops from Afghanistan appears to have emboldened the cadres of the Taliban and its Al-Qaeda accomplices. This will potentially free up the terrorists from the Afghanistan war theater to engage in terrorist activities in India.

Third, perennial U.S. baiter Al-Zawahiri’s open declaration of loyalty to Mullah Omar and his description of successful efforts in uniting different terrorist factions in the region are meant for terrorists of the Al-Qaeda brand to focus squarely on waging a jihad in South Asia towards eventually setting up a regional Al-Qaeda Caliphate, with India as the critical hub of its terrorist operations.

Fourth, the public severing of ties between ISIS and its ideological fountainhead, the Al-Qaeda organization of Al-Zawahiri, in February this year may well be a ruse to make the U.S. believe that the purported fissures between the two are deep and lasting. Or else it may well be a clear-cut geographical division of labor between the two, with ISIS catering to the jihadi needs of the Levant and the Al-Qaeda focusing with a more renewed vigor on the Indian subcontinent.

Fifth, the recent assumption of power by the nationalist government of Modi appears to have been used by the Al-Qaeda organization to unite terrorists of every South Asian stripe to wage war against India. Al-Zawahiri’s mention of Kashmir, Ahmedabad, Gujarat, Assam, Bangladesh, and Myanmar is indicative of the need on the part of the terrorists in the subcontinent to rally behind the Al-Qaeda umbrella and target the Indian State and U.S. diplomatic installations within it.

Sixth, all the aforementioned regions under Al-Zawahiri’s radar have seen varying degrees of unrest, communal disturbance, or violence previously. Al-Qaeda through its South Asian affiliates may well want to revive the memories of these events in the past and in the process fan the flames of communal and sectarian strife with the intent to cause fresh violence.

Seventh, all the regions mentioned above are either border regions of India or those which share contiguous borders with it. In collusion with, and with the active facilitation of the dreaded criminal syndicate of the D-Company, that has also been sanctioned by the US Treasury, the aforementioned Al-Qaeda affiliates will continue to transport criminals, drugs, terrorists, insurgents, arms, and counterfeit Indian currency across the Indian borders including those with Pakistan, Bangladesh, and Myanmar. The formalization of Al-Qaeda’s effort to activate a South Asian affiliate makes these border regions a ready target for its foot-soldiers which will likely comprise the battle-ready and ideologically charged cadres of its South Asian affiliates who have easy familiarity with that geographical terrain.

Finally, the unraveling of the Pakistani Taliban, the increasingly assertive control of the Pakistani military over democratic institutions in Pakistan, the lavish funding streams of terrorist groups in Pakistan, and the end of the US-led NATO mission in Afghanistan appear to be the  most opportune combination of factors for the anti-Afghan and anti-Indian elements in Pakistan to shore up their ranks, coalesce around the Al-Qaeda banner, and prepare for battle to wage terrorism in South Asia with a fervor that conforms to the jihadi script penned by Al-Qaeda.

India and the U.S. face a common terrorist threat and the Modi-Obama meeting may be a great opportunity for the two sides to begin engagement on more intensive counterterrorism cooperation, including intelligence sharing and law enforcement collaboration. Let’s not forget that 9/11 was planned in South Asia by Al-Qaeda, and the Khorasan terrorist group currently active in Syria comprises operatives from South Asia. Both countries will be interested in seeing that another 9/11 never occurs in either country.

Kumar, Ph.D, is the fellow for Homeland Security and Counterterrorism at the Center for National Policy in Washington DC; an adjunct associate professor at Georgetown University; and previously worked with the Al-Qaida and Taliban Sanctions Regimes at the United Nations in New York. He can be reached at akumar@cnponline.org