The foreign policy of Speaker Ryan

Rep. Paul Ryan (R-Wis.) was elected to the position of Speaker of the House of Representatives at a time when the divide between the Obama administration and Congressional Republicans on specific decisions and the general approach towards foreign policy has never been as stark or contentious. But as often is the case, electoral decisions such as Ryan’s election was about domestic policy not foreign affairs. Unlike the political operator that he is replacing, Ryan is known as a budget policy wonk. His crafting of conservative budget proposals is what made him popular but he has shown little interest in foreign policy, making it difficult to gauge how he will approach the many challenges facing the world and U.S. foreign policy today.  

His seeming lack of interest on international affairs may prove important: Will he completely defer to the most neoconservative/pro-Israel elements of his party on foreign policy issues (as Boenher did and Ryan seems to have done so far in his career)? Will he avoid costly, difficult battles with President Obama or a future president on foreign policy issues he is not passionate about? Will he fight those battles to pacify his ultra-conservative elements in his caucus as to garner support on complicated budgetary issues he does care about? 

{mosads}While he did refer to himself as a “heavily-armed dove” – declining to call himself a hawk – during an address at the Center for a New American Security (CNAS), the relatively few positions that Ryan has expressed on foreign policy are consistent with the GOP mainstream, characterized by a neoconservative outlook, staunch pro-Israel sentiment as well as criticism and mistrust towards Obama. This includes a spectrum of issues that are central to the discord between House Republicans and the Obama administration.  

Ryan has expressed strong opposition towards the reduction of military spending on the grounds that it shows weakness. In the 2012 vice presidential debate, he said “when we show that we’re cutting our own defense, it makes us more weak. It projects weakness, and when we look weak, our adversaries are much more willing to test us, they’re more brazen in their attacks.”  

He has strongly opposed the nuclear agreement between Iran and six major powers referred to as the Joint Comprehensive Plan of Action (JCPOA) saying that it “may slow down Iran’s pursuit of a nuclear weapon, but it clearly will not prevent it.”  

During the mentioned address at CNAS, he opposed the administration’s – now rescinded – withdrawal time table from Afghanistan saying “We should bring our troops home as soon as possible but not before they finish the job”, he advocated a stronger military pushback against Russia saying “we also need to start talks with our allies, so we can strengthen NATO’s permanent military presence on its eastern frontier”, and he demanded stronger action against Chinese cyber attacks and advocated a military buildup of alliances in that part of the world as well. He even criticized the Obama administration as he found the military deployments to Australia that are part of the pivot to Asia inadequate.    

During the run up to the 2012 election Ryan expressed frustration over the U.S. backing a UN peace effort rather than increasing military activity and arming rebels. Yet Ryan also opposed the president’s requested Authorization for the Use of Military Force (AUMF) against ISIL in Syria as he said it would only yield a “feckless show of force [that] will only damage our credibility”.  

One factor that could be very impactful is the influence of Dan Senor, a William Kristol protégé, who became the surprising choice to be Paul Ryan’s top adviser when Ryan was designated as Mitt Romney’s vice presidential candidate in 2012. Senor had previously served as the spokesperson for Paul Bremer, the chief administrator of the Coalition Provisional Authority in Iraq and has deep ties to both Israel and the Israel lobby in Washington. He attended university in Israel and his sister, Wendy Singer, headed the America-Israel Public Affairs Committee (AIPAC) Jerusalem office. Though his appointment to Ryan’s staff seems to have been a Romney campaign decision – he was already a foreign policy adviser to Romney – Ryan, to this day, seeks Senor’s counsel on foreign policy. 

Other foreign affairs experts linked to Ryan, such as Yuval Levin, the founding editor of National Affairs; and Peter Wehner, a senior fellow at the Ethics & Public Policy Center, are also very active in the pro-Israel and neoconservative communities.

Ahmadi is a New York-based writer and analyst focused on U.S. policy towards Iran and Middle East geopolitics.