An unanticipated minor fault

Consider this fictitious – but possible – scenario.  

Next year, as world conflicts worsen, and both Russia and China (separately) get more aggressive, real war breaks out (in Ukraine, South China Sea, the Mideast, North Korea, the Baltics, Taiwan, India-Pakistan…anywhere).  Fighting escalates (as it usually does).  Great powers become involved, as is certain (first one, then an opposing one).  Eventually a nuclear weapon is used, by someone (a small, possibly primitive nuke).  Instantly the great powers ready their nuclear arsenals.  Tensions escalate to the breaking point.  Confusion reigns. The fighting intensifies.  Boundaries (of several kinds) are crossed.  Eventually another nuclear weapon detonates, destroying an American city.  Deterrence kicks in, and we retaliate with one nuclear weapon at the (believed) perpetrator.  It doesn’t detonate!  We launch a second one.  Same result.  Headlines around the world scream AMERICAN NUKES DON’T WORK!   Instantly Russia, or China, or both, demand America’s immediate unconditional surrender.  They state they will arrive next week to take over the entire U.S. government; and thousands more will arrive the following week to take over every state government.  We tell them to get lost.  Three more American cities are destroyed, millions killed.  We launch more nukes, none detonate.  Our opponent (or opponents) tell us they will destroy one city a week until we surrender.  After a few weeks, a few cities, we surrender, and all American military forces lay down their arms. 

{mosads}We only made one mistake…but it was a big one!  FOR 24 YEARS – AN ENTIRE GENERATION – WE HAD NOT TESTED A SINGLE NUCLEAR WEAPON!  Nuclear weapons are the most complex systems known to man, and these weapons were designed decades ago, when nuclear physics was in its adolescence.  Our lives depend upon them.  America’s existence depends upon them.  What household electronics item would you expect to work flawlessly after lying unused for 24 years? 

A small fault had occurred in the physics package of our warhead design, common to two warhead types.  We discovered many dozens of unanticipated faults like this during our half-century of nuclear weapons testing.  But in 1992 we stopped testing and relied on computer simulations instead.  The problem is that this type of fault hadn’t occurred to our physicists; and you know what they say about computers, garbage in, garbage out.

WAKE UP, America!