33 minutes
Right now it’s only the title of a short, national security documentary, but 33 minutes is all the time it takes for a nuclear-tipped intercontinental ballistic missile (ICBM) to reach the continental United States from anywhere on Earth.
Of course, it would take even less time for such a weapon to reach states like Hawaii and Alaska and U.S. territories like Guam—or U.S. military bases and our troops stationed or deployed overseas.
{mosads}Pretty scary if think about it.
Unfortunately, it’s something that we need to be thinking seriously about considering disturbing international security developments.
For instance, North Korea has now tested a nuclear device five times since 2006 —twice just this year. While difficult to verify, Pyongyang has probably converted its underground nuclear test rig into a warhead that would fit into a missile nosecone.
North Korea has also made great strides on its ballistic missile program, including the intermediate-range ballistic missile known as the “Musudan” that can range Guam.
Pyongyang has also long had an ICBM program known as the “Taepodong” that can probably reach the continental United States. It’s also working on a road-mobile ICBM capability.
North Korea has a space program which has put a satellite into orbit. Indeed, the science and technology used to put a satellite into space is essentially the same as that needed to launch a ballistic missile with a nuclear warhead across the planet.
In other words, a country can plausibly “cover” its research and development on a military ICBM program under the guise of a peaceful, civilian space program.
Equally disturbing is North Korea’s ongoing efforts to develop a submarine-launched ballistic missile (SLBM) that may someday provide Pyongyang a nuclear deterrent/strike capability at sea as well.
Of course, neighboring China has recently done just that: It’s sending its nuclear deterrent to sea aboard modern, nuclear-powered fleet ballistic missile submarines armed with JL-2 long-range SLBMs.
This development bolsters Beijing’s strategic modernization of moving from silo-based to road-mobile ICBMs, from single warhead missiles to missiles with multiple, independently targetable re-entry vehicles (MIRV).
Russia, under the New Strategic Arms Reduction Treaty (New START), has increased its nuclear arsenal and recently deployed “Iskander” nuclear-capable theater ballistic missiles to its exclave in Kaliningrad, located between NATO’s Poland and Lithuania.
Of course, we can’t rule out a nuclear breakout by Iran despite the 2014 international deal that was struck, resulting in the pairing of a nuclear weapon with its ongoing “civilian” space launch/satellite program.
You get the point.
This all raises the question the film “33 Minutes” asks: Do we have the means—in this case missile defense–to defend ourselves from this growing threat that adversaries and potential adversaries are developing?
It’s true we’ve made some progress in acquiring and deploying missile defenses since the late 1990’s, often at Congress’ thoughtful direction and insistence, but we’ve arguably not kept pace with the threat since then.
With this in mind, Congress should, among other steps:
- Fund missile defense programs that have gone underfunded for years.
- Affirm that the United States will protect itself from any ballistic missile threat.
- Demand that the next Administration develop and deploy a space-based missile defense interceptor layer.
Mutual assured destruction (MAD) or massive retaliation should not be the only strategic policy options we have today for dealing with the growing nuclear and missile threat. Deliberate vulnerability to this serious security challenge is simply illogical—and, of course, dangerous.
No country or actor should be able to coerce, blackmail or hold America hostage to its policies. A robust, layered missile defense will ensure that 33 minutes will be plenty of time to respond to a nuclear or ballistic missile attack.
Dr. Peter Brookes is a Heritage Foundation senior fellow and a former deputy assistant secretary of defense. Will Samuel is a Heritage Foundation intern.
The views expressed by authors are their own and not the views of The Hill.
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