Testing the new climate constituency

Last month, I joined 400,000 in the streets of New York City for the largest climate demonstration in history. The scene was beautiful, with elaborate art, jam-packed streets, and indigenous communities leading the charge. But while the march’s 400,0000 is an impressive number, the real number to watch will be counted on Election Day.

To ensure that climate change is on the agenda for the next Congress, the climate constituency must prove that the People’s Climate March was a launching point, rather than the main attraction.

{mosads}The mid-term election this November, in which about a third of the Senate and every House member is up for a vote, is critical for determining the viability of climate and energy policy. For instance, the closely watched Colorado senate race will determine if long time environmental champion Sen. Mark Udall (D) stays in his position on the Energy and Natural Resources Committee. Furthermore, any international treaty that the president signs at the UNFCCC in Paris next year will need to be ratified by the next congress.

A look at the numbers holds promising news for the climate movement. A public opinion survey earlier this year found that for each person who joined the People’s Climate March on September 21^st there are approximately 102 American voters who think global warming is happening, are worried about it, and are willing to sign a pledge to vote only for candidates who share their views on global warming.

According to the Yale Project on Climate Change Communication, Americans are more than two times more likely to support a candidate who calls for action to reduce global warming—and three times more likely to vote against a candidate who opposes such action. One in four Americans would join a campaign calling on political leaders to take action on climate; 37 percent would sign a pledge to only vote for candidates who shared their views on global warming, while 24 percent would volunteer for and 22 percent would donate to such a candidate.

Meanwhile, 21 percent of Americans would support an organization engaging in civil disobedience to stop activities that perpetuate climate change—and 13 percent would participate in that civil disobedience. That 13 percent was well represented the day after the People’s Climate March when three thousand activists shutdown a section of lower Manhattan near Wall Street, calling out the corporate interests at the root of climate change.

While action on climate change has been a low priority for the current do-nothing Congress, the Yale survey indicates that millions of voters care deeply about the issue and are willing to take action. This is significant for the prospects of political action at all levels of government. “Global warming could become a more prominent electoral issue, if campaigns find a way to engage and mobilize this potential “issue public,” says Anthony Leiserowitz’s director of the Yale Project on Climate Change Communication. The People’s Climate March was an important step towards such a mobilization – displaying the size and intensity of a new climate constituency – but the sentiment must prevail on Election Day in order to translate into political capital. And based on Yale’s survey, chances are that will happen.

Schwarz is the communications strategist for the Yale Project on Climate Change Communication. As a researcher, technologist, and grassroots organizer, her work has been covered by the Associated Press, NPR, and CNN.