The Commerce Department reported today that the economy rose at an annual rate of just 2.5 percent in the second quarter, less than half the robust pace of the first quarter. Does this foreshadow a softening economy going forward? Well, sort of.
Recent data on housing and consumer spending show that these components of the economy are sluggish, from high energy prices as well as rising interest rates. However, recent data on trade and new orders for capital goods suggest that business investment and exports are still humming along.
Look for economic growth to accelerate to above 3 percent growth in the third quarter, with more growth coming from investment and trade and less from consumption and housing.