Trump’s tactical intelligence

Hillary Clinton’s plan to use her husband Bill in New Hampshire became an opportunity for Donald J. Trump to further elevate himself above his Republican rivals. No other Republican candidate came anywhere near this game.

First, it was expected that Hillary would use Bill at some point. Bill stated in an April 2015 interview with Town & Country that his role in the campaign would be a backstage adviser until the election got closer. That appears to be now.

{mosads}Second, the choice to use Bill appears really to be about Sen. Bernie Sanders (I-Vt.), who has a 5.8 point average lead in New Hampshire over Hillary according to the Real Clear Politics average of polls. Though Hillary leads Sanders both in Iowa and nationally, a New Hampshire loss for her could reverberate into other states and bolster Sanders.

Where Hillary can’t seem to gain ground on Sanders, she might borrow on Bill’s charisma in an attempt to siphon off his support. While sensible, it’s also inconsistent because Hillary has said variously that she’s running for president and not her husband and that her presidency will not be a continuation of Bill’s. If so, then why use him?

This story, however, has been strategically hijacked by Trump, who cleverly converted it into a larger story of a contest between himself and Hillary, though it’s still primary season. By doing so, he further elevated himself above his Republican competitors and added to his momentum to gain the nomination.

Trump’s opportunity came with Hillary’s Dec. 22 remark to the De Moines Register that Trump has a “penchant for sexism.” Trump followed up with a warning the next day to be careful, then tweeted on Dec. 26 about Bill’s “penchant for sexism.” He also broadened his attack on the Clintons more generally and hasn’t stopped since. By criticizing Trump, as opposed to other Republican contenders, Hillary’s misstep made Trump her focus.

Hillary’s response to Trumps’ attacks? She wisely shut down the narrative with Trump. The Clinton campaign appears to be running silent and deep on the matter, though this hasn’t stopped Trump.

Trump has everything to gain from this fight and Hillary has everything to lose. Despite the obvious problem of Bill’s baggage and, if the gossip is to be believed, its potential to implicate Hillary, there are other dangers should Bill join in and take on Trump.

When the spat first arose, pundits declared that Bill would crush Trump in a fight—even crush him with a smile. This sounded like aspirational talk, reminiscent of the older predictions of Trump’s inevitable decline.

It simply can’t help Hillary for Bill to take on Trump in New Hampshire or elsewhere. If he did so, a few things might happen. One is that it would ratify Trump’s play of making this about himself and Hillary, while taking attention away from Hillary’s need to beat Sanders in New Hampshire. Second, there’s the danger of Bill’s personal baggage becoming the daily chatter. Third, Hillary might be forced to address Trump’s policy attacks on both of the Clintons (e.g., in foreign policy). All of these items could cost Hillary voter support.

But fourth, and more dangerously, it could make Hillary look desperate and scared, despite her frontrunner status. If she uses her husband Bill to stand up to the bully Trump, it would create an image problem she doesn’t need. It would be wiser to use Bill as a high road campaigner for Hillary.

Sanders, on the other hand, is happy to criticize Trump, though he barely gets a response from Trump when he does so. Sanders spoke in Worcester, Massachusetts on Saturday, Jan. 2, and criticized Trump by name, without ever mentioning Hillary. Instead of a rejoinder, Trump is still tweeting about Hillary and Bill. Why Sanders isn’t criticizing Hillary is an open question, given Hillary’s use of Bill to gain ground on him in New Hampshire. 

Gerace is a lawyer in Worcester, Massachusetts. You can follow him on Twitter at @MichaelPGerace