SpaceX’s Falcon 9 launch previews future of rocketry

Earlier this month, California-based SpaceX launched its Dragon spacecraft on a routine mission to resupply the International Space Station with food, scientific supplies, and other cargo. While this primary objective is obviously important, it’s the experiment that is now taking place after Dragon was dropped into orbit that, if successful, will have the most impact on the future of space transportation.

SpaceX’s failed attempt to land the first stage of its Falcon 9 rocket on a barge (dubbed the Autonomous Spaceport Drone Ship) would have, if successful, offered a pivotal breakthrough in rocket technology that will significantly reduce costs in access to space not only with regard to human space flight exploration but also for national security.

{mosads}Today, even the most efficient rockets in the world deliver less than 3 percent of their launch mass to orbit. That means that the other 97 percent is thrown away to crash into the ocean or burn up in the atmosphere. A reusable launch system implies big savings for the American taxpayer when launching Government payloads to space. It means that companies would no longer have to build a new rocket for every launch – which can cost tens or even hundreds of millions of dollars each. The central idea is to make spaceflight as affordable as air travel by limiting the marginal cost of launch to fuel and maintenance. NASA’s Space Shuttle fleet, now retired, was an attempt at reusability, but each orbiter had to be nearly completely rebuilt between missions, a far cry from the quick turnaround seen at airports today.

In simple economic terms, the cost per pound of payload delivered to low earth orbit by today’s launch vehicles runs from over $1000 to more than $10,000 according to various estimates. To achieve our ambitious future space objectives with the limited dollars available in an austere environment, the cost and complexity of launch vehicles must more nearly approach the cost and complexity associated with aircraft operations.

Now, SpaceX only attempted to recover the first stage of the two-stage rocket on this test. That said, a rocket’s first stage is by far its most expensive segment, well in excess of 50 percent of total costs. If it’s recovered, the cost of building each rocket can get amortized over many launches, just as an aircraft is over its lifetime. A payload delivery cost of $40 to $125 per pound may seem like a dream today, but it’s a reasonable goal to strive for in a first-generation reusable launch vehicle if one aims to drastically reduce the cost of access to space.

Why is lowering the cost of spaceflight so important? Right now, few countries can afford to routinely send people and satellites to space, even as many more have come to recognize the benefits to commerce and national security conveyed. However, as launch costs diminish, it becomes more feasible for nations, companies, and individuals to leverage spaceflight. This is especially important to nations and private sector actors with ambitious goals in space but limited budgets.

Even without broader international access to space, there are clear benefits to the United States. Today, the Nation lacks any domestic capability of sending astronauts to space. NASA retired the Space Shuttle in 2011 because it was too expensive (over $1 billion for every flight) and lacked modern safety features. The agency now pays Russia to fly U.S. and allied astronauts, at more than $70 million per person. Even with NASA’s significant budget, that means it can only afford to send a few astronauts a year to space. A reusable system, and the far lower operating costs associated with it, would dramatically change this paradigm.

Furthermore, reusability will be a game changer when it comes to supporting US national security efforts. Today, the Air Force spends approximately $400 million per launch through its Evolved Expendable Launch Vehicle (EELV) program, which has projected costs of nearly $70 billion through 2030 and is the fourth largest line item in the US defense budget.  As other nations develop their own space and counter-space capabilities, the military needs to have rapid technological refresh capabilities to ensure it is always ahead of its adversaries. That’s not feasible today due to the high cost of launch. Reusability changes that.

Even with all this promise, there is a long way to go before we can achieve reusability. Irrespective of the result of this weekend’s test, SpaceX has taken one small step for the launcher industry, which has the potential to be a giant leap for mankind.

Gopalaswamy is the Acting Director of the South Asia Center at the Atlantic Council.