House primaries to watch on Tuesday

Tuesday’s slate of House primaries will test whether two incumbents accused of ethical improprieties can beat back challengers and if breaking records for self-funding a campaign can win an election.

Not a single incumbent has lost a primary yet this cycle, despite the anti-establishment fervor shaking up the presidential campaign for both parties.

{mosads}But Republican House Transportation Committee Chairman Bill Shuster and indicted Democratic Rep. Chaka Fattah are at risk of losing their parties’ nominations in Pennsylvania due to separate questions about each lawmaker’s ethics.

And in Maryland, the two seats being vacated by Democratic Senate candidates Reps. Chris Van Hollen and Donna Edwards are subject to crowded Democratic primaries.

Here’s a look at four House races to watch.

Will dating a lobbyist hurt Shuster?

Shuster is under heavy scrutiny for his romantic relationship with an airline lobbyist while he chairs the House Transportation Committee. His Tea Party-backed opponent, Art Halvorson, was unsuccessful in trying to defeat Shuster in the 2014 primary. But Halvorson has seized upon the revelations that Shuster is dating a top lobbyist for Airlines for America, which advocates before the Transportation Committee. 

The three-year chairman of the Transportation panel has maintained that he adheres closely to House rules so that his dating life doesn’t impact his work. Still, Halvorson argued in a debate last weekend that the relationship is “a conflict of interest of the highest order.”

The odds still favor Shuster given his family’s longtime prominence in the district. Shuster first won election in 2001 to succeed his father, Bud Shuster, who also chaired the House Transportation Committee during his 28-year tenure.

Shuster also has a major cash advantage after raising about $2.6 million, according to the most recent fundraising reports. American Action Network, an outside group affiliated with members of the GOP establishment, spent $200,000 in TV ads and digital advertising for Shuster during the last week of the race. Halvorson, meanwhile, has raised just over $64,000 and loaned his campaign $200,000.

Can Fattah win his primary after an indictment? 

Fattah hasn’t faced a primary challenger since he was first elected in 1994. But a federal indictment last summer on more than a dozen charges related to conspiracy, mail fraud and falsification of records has made him vulnerable this cycle.

The Justice Department alleged in its indictment that Fattah borrowed $1 million from a donor during his unsuccessful 2007 campaign for Philadelphia mayor, and then repaid part of the loan by filtering money through charitable and federal grants for a nonprofit he founded. The indictment further stated that Fattah used funds from his congressional and mayoral campaigns to pay off his son’s student loans. 

Fattah has maintained his innocence, although he did relinquish his position as the top Democrat on the House Appropriations subcommittee overseeing the Justice Department on the day of his indictment.

Longtime state Rep. Dwight Evans is posing the strongest challenge over the two other candidates, attorney Dan Muroff and Lower Merion Township Commissioner Brian Gordon, and is hoping to unseat Fattah. Multiple major Pennsylvania figures like Gov. Tom Wolf, former Gov. Ed Rendell and Philadelphia Mayor Jim Kenney are backing Evans in the primary.

Yet Fattah may still eke out a victory due to the name recognition he commands after serving the district for more than two decades. He’s established himself as a senior member of the Congressional Black Caucus and is currently the only African-American member of an otherwise all-white male state delegation.

Can $12 million buy a House seat?

The Democratic primary to succeed Rep. Chris Van Hollen in Maryland’s 8th District has become the most expensive House race in the nation to date this year, even though the Montgomery County seat isn’t considered remotely competitive in the general election.

Total Wine magnate David Trone became the highest-spending House candidate in history this month after using $12 million of his own money to fund his campaign. Trone has subsequently blanketed the airwaves throughout the D.C. region with ads arguing that his ability to self-finance will keep him free from special interests’ influence in Congress. “Campaigns shouldn’t be this expensive,” Trone said in a print ad published in The Washington Post this month.

Nine Democrats will be on Tuesday’s ballot, but Trone, former news anchor Kathleen Matthews and state Sen. Jamie Raskin are considered to be the front-runners. Matthews is married to MSNBC host Chris Matthews, but her husband has stayed away from the campaign trail.

Trone’s rivals have all taken shots at his spending. One of Raskin’s ads features people saying their votes are “earned, not bought” and “not for sale,” while Matthews accused Trone of trying to “buy a congressional seat, as if it’s a fine bottle of wine.” Raskin and Matthews are nonetheless spending considerable sums in a district located in the expensive D.C. media market: each has spent about $1.2 million and $2 million, respectively. 

Can a failed gubernatorial candidate pull off a comeback?

Six Democrats have filed to run in Tuesday’s primary race to succeed Rep. Donna Edwards, who’s running for Senate. Whoever emerges as the victor of Tuesday’s primary will be on a clear path to win the general election in a district that’s consistently been held by Democrats.

The candidate with the highest name recognition is Anthony Brown, the former Maryland lieutenant governor who lost the race for the deep-blue state’s highest office in 2014 to Republican Larry Hogan. But Brown is no shoo-in for the Prince George’s County-area House seat, given frustration among Democrats who believe he should have had an easy win during a GOP wave year. 

The race has boiled down to a three-way battle between Brown, Del. Joseline Peña-Melnyk and former state’s attorney Glenn Ivey. Peña-Melnyk has won endorsements from The Washington Post as well as influential women’s and Hispanic advocacy groups, including the Congressional Hispanic Caucus’s political action committee, Latino Victory Fund, and EMILY’s List.

Ivey leads the trio in fundraising after raking in just over $1 million in contributions, according to the most recent fundraising report from earlier this month. Peña-Melnyk comes in second place with about $800,000 in donations, while Brown trails at $616,000.